Tuesday, September 4, 2012

Romney/ Obama 2012 preview

It's the day after Labor Day and the official kick off for many folks going into to the Fall election.

The Dem's will launch their convention tonight in Charlotte, NC.  Romney appears to have gotten a 3-5 point bounce from last weeks event, despite Hurricane Isaac's attempt to disrupt things.

I have been chatting with several of my Left leaning friends and have found more and more that they are reserved to the idea that Obama is probably going to lose.  Now before I get myself all excited because of my own experiences in person and Social Media.  ( I think the "disappointed in Obama" meme is starting to take hold).

I have been watching the polls for months and I know that most polling doesn't mean much until a week after the second convention is over..but it's still useful to watch for trends.  Romney hasn't had a lead since Oct of 2011 vs. Obama.  He has a few times come to within  a half % according to  RCP Polls  yesterday they were tied for the first time. Today Obama is up .3%.   Now as I have explained to folks for the past several years you need to take any polling of RV (Registered Voters) and add 3% to the GOP candidate.  LV (Likely Voters), are more accurate.  If you take all of the RV polls over the past 3 months and Romney would be up from 1-3% rather than Obama, who has been trending 0-3% up since then.

Another survey was release today from Breitbart.com Here: Shrinking Dem Party.  This is the best collection of data about how much the Ground beneath Obama's feet has changed since he was elected in 2008 and the Dems took control of the House and Senate in Nov. 2006.

A few highlights:  
             In 2009 Dems controlled 60 of the seat in the Senate, today they have 51, and will probably lose     3-6 in November this year.
            In 2009 the Dems controlled 29 Governorship's in the US, It's down to 21 and 2-4 more will proba flip in November.
            Since Jan 2009, when Democrats controlled both chambers of the legislature in 27 states. The GOP controlled just 14. (The rest were split-control, with each party controlling one chamber.) Today, the situation is completely reversed, with GOP controlling 27 states to the Democrats 15. There are more GOP state legislators today than at any time since 1928. 

Lastly the Brietbart article referred to an study done by THIRD WAY and linked thru Politico HERE This states that of 12 "swing states" in 8 of those States 800,000 less Democrats are registered, and Independents are rising, (and the GOP is rising in most of those States).  4 of the 12 States do not require registration by party: Wisc., Virginia, Ohio and Michigan.  What happened in all four of those States in Nov 2010?  In each Case a GOP Governor won, (VA was 2009), In each of them the State Senate was taken over of the margin improved for the GOP in 2012, in the Assembly of each the GOP either took control decidedly or Improved it's margin.

The Hill today discusses the declining poll number in approval/ disapproval for the President.  54% think Obama doesn't deserve re-election.

Just based on that number alone Obama would lose today 46-54!  If that happens the down ballot erosion at the Senate level could be 55-43-2 result in the Senate! The House margin could grow by 5-25 more seats!

Youth voters are slightly less supportive than in 2008, and the enthusiasm/ historical motivation is way down. I suspect the return to normal youth voter participation.

Black voters in 2008 voted 93% in favor of Prez Obama; I suspect we shall see normalization to 87-90% and return to normal Black voter participation. Jewish voters are nowhere near as "thrilled" as they were in 2008; And the Hispanic voters in Swing states have been trending more GOP friendly than in the past decade.

Unions have had their treasury's cleaned out, they have lost almost 10% of their membership since 2008, and more of them are looking askance at their ability to save the President.  Look for decreased financial support, and more importantly decreased enthusiasm to help with the GOTV drive.

Debates.  Pres Obama hasn't done a debate in almost 4 years..except those 2 lame performances where Paul Ryan takes him to task politely and the "discussion " on the Tarmac with Gov. Jan Brewer in AZ.  Whereas you might recall how everyone was complaining that the GOP had too many debates in the Fall and Winter last year..that will leave Romney well prepared  to deal with any questions presented to him.  While Paul Ryan hasn't had a debate in a while..he will simply wipe the floor up with Joe Biden.  (Even Sarah Palin beat or tied Biden in 2008).

If I had to set the November results today I would say:
                     Romney 54          EV 320
                     Obama  45          EV 218
                     Gary Johnson 1%
Whatever % of the Vote Romney gets will determine the US  Senate race.  If he gets 54% expect 54-46 Senate with the GOP in control.

They were so many things that point to a Romney win it's becoming overwhelming.  Look for those polls to start breaking away to Romneys benefit in about 2 weeks.

1 comment:

  1. Ha, so I know this was a month ago but... Things sure haven't improved for Romney. In fact, your prediction may be exactly flipped. Gaffes caused it I guess.