Tuesday, September 4, 2012

Akin might still beat McCaskill in Missouri!

After all the flack that Akin got for gaffe over Abortion and Rape..and the subsequent firestorm of Dems criticizing him and the GOP abandoning him..it looks like he just might win after all. It seems the vast majority of Missouri Voters have accepted his apology, and he is still within a point or 2 of Senator Claire McCaskill.  The big change is the number of folks that are still "Undecided"; but Sen. Claire is still hovering around 43-45% in the polls, that is usually a death knell for a sitting Senator or Congressman.  The undecideds usually break 2-1 for the challenger, so if 12% are undecided expect the incumbent to get 4% (49%) and the challenger would get the other 8% and put him at 51%.  We still have a few weeks, and Sen McC has lots of cash on hand, and Akin has been cut off from all the PAC's and the GOP money.   I think if he can stay within a few points for the next 2 weeks of  Missouri Polls, he will either start to get some slight help from those groups or quietly a new PAC will be created and money will flow from the PAC's and the party through that new organization. 

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