I know it's just a little early to make predictions about the highly unusual recall vote on June 5th. But I have been doing some info. gathering about what happened in the primary.
FIRST: the urban/Black voters in Milwaukee and Racine and even Madison didn't bother to even vote in the primary, despite the fact that more than half of the signatures the were gathered for this recall from those very neighborhoods. Jim Widgerson last week reviewed the voters that showed up Here: I did an analysis as well Tea Party Trifecta. Widgy demonstrated the GOP vote out performed the Dem vote by almost 200,000, My number was closer to 30,000. Someplace between there would be 125K.
Second: The DNC is not throwing much money at the Barrett campaign and most importantly the GOTV $$ of $500,000 and the money is not coming. That money is the lifeblood of Dem campaigns. You see every Urban area and neighborhoods have a a "Guy" who gets paid to go do knock and drags in the central city. I didn't believe this was actually done, But I have learned that it's common in Chicago, New Orleans, Detroit, Milwaukee and even right here in Racine! The primary battle didn't use this tactic..and now it'll be interesting to see if the Dems are willing to go voluntarily to the polls to vote Mayor Milquetoast. I suspect not.
Third: Their are very few undecideds according to all the polls for the past several months, so it's gonna come down to turnout. With virtually ZERO GOTV motivation the GOP outperformed the Dems in the primary by 100K, and tens of thousands of GOP voters didn't even know Walker had a challenger!
Fourth: The people of Wisconsin already know both of these guys..they just had a showdown in Nov 2010, and it wasn't really a nail-biter, Walker won! A number of Barrett voters accept the results and will not vote at all, some will vote to keep Walker. And the national support for Barrett is drying up fast!
My estimate off 55/45 might actually be too low!