Thursday, November 8, 2012

The TEA Party is still winning, It's not time to change our message

OK first off Obama won, he won small not big.. He hasn't changed the momentum of the TEA Party..maybe a little slow down; but we aren't going away.

First of all Obama was down 10 Million voters, and the GOP was only down 2.5 Million.  Mitt lost by 2.5 Million, who are these people?  Researching now to determine who they were.  If we had gotten those folks to the polls we'd win and the demographic numbers would be pretty much the same as 2008..but our side would've won.  In the 10 swing states they all went less for Obama than 2008..that means we are winning, even if we didn't capture the Flag.

Several states like Wisconsin had big increases in State control by the GOP candidates.  Only a few House seats changed hands.   While we lost a few Senate seats..we are still way ahead of where we were on th eFirst day of November 2010..a week later we took the House and Senate and Governorship's and State legislatures..we essentially held our ground in what Prez Obama called a "Shellacking" back in Nov 2010.

So while we fell short of the Presidential race..It was one of the closest losses ever against a sitting President.  had the vote been a week earlier or Hurricane Sandy hadn't landed when it did Romney Ryan would've won as predicted by Karl Rove, Michael Barone and others.

The post-mortum on all the round tables is that the TEA Party is hurting the GOP. BS I say, The fact is R&R ran an economics based election and they just barely missed winning.  It's not time to change our position on amnesty for illegals..it's not time to embrace abortion or gay marriage or birth control pills for law students.

We are being asked to make an outreach to Hispanics...I think our party already is the outreach for them and over the years as they become wealthier and more successful they will find themselves at home in the GOP based on family, personal responsibility, and rewarding success.  We currently get about 70% of the Latino voters.  We do much worse than that in California. but California is a lost cause for us these days.  the rest of the countries Latins are more open to our message.  As for the "black" vote..  Obama did very well with them in both election cycles 2008 & 12.. around 94%  but historically the GOP gets about 12-15%., When the candidate isn't Black we should see this number back to normal.  As more middle class blacks earn more and become business owners we'll grab back about 1 % every 2 years for another generation I think.

So all of this angst about the GOP and the TEA Party needing to Kow-Tow to these micro groups is just silly.  Stay focused primarily on Taxes, Spending and the "Economy Stupid" and we'll continue to grow our majorities...For now hold Obama in check and don't give him anything.  He is a lame-duck.and is unable to lead at anything.  2014 is just around the corner.

Friday, October 19, 2012

The Media is Turning on Obama


I know and the media now knows that Obama is going to lose.

Is anyone else sensing the TURN of the "Tide"????  I am feeling it, and smelling it.  Most of us know that  the main stream media has been running cover for Obama for 5 years now.  Very little "Vetting" or investigation at the beginning..very little pressure to do press conferences.   Softball interviews on the View, and morning rock shows asking him about food and what kind of superhero he'd be.  the list goes on...

Just in the past 2 days.... the tide has shifted.   BIG TIME!!  First the New York Times now has the Benghazi story on the FRONT page, top of the fold.  CBS now has it's reporters chasing down the "Fast and Furious" story and even Eric Holder.  Guess what;s happened?  The press has decided that Obama is going to lose, and saving him is no longer of any value to them.  The long knives are out and the questions are gonna get seriously tougher and the demands will be huge.  He's gonna look more tired and more "grey" as the last 2 weeks go by.  At the same time Mitt Romney is funny, and smiling and looking and acting "kool" and confident.

Look for the Sunday shows to be very tough on Obama and his talking head minions.  I suspect Romney will be very well informed on the "TERROR" incident, and will not let it go on Monday night.  Once the break begins, there is no turning back for the media, they want to win Pulitzers..and their not gonna let a good story escape, if there is no downside and Prez Obama is going down anyway.  This will lead to a bigger win than many folks have expected maybe even 7-8 points...Watch all the Senate races fall the same direction over the next 2 weeks.  

My 2 weeks prediction is:
Romney 53
Obama 46
Gary Johnson 1%
320+ EV for Romney  (Includes Wisconsin for Romney).

The Senate goes 54-46 GOP

Less than 5 seats switch either way in the House. The GOP adds 2 more Governors which I think makes 31-19

I think GOP wins the following Senate races:
Wisconsin, Nebraska, North Dakota,, Massachusetts, Missouri, Virginia, Montana
And then either Connecticut, Pennsylvania or Florida!

Tuesday, September 4, 2012

Akin might still beat McCaskill in Missouri!

After all the flack that Akin got for gaffe over Abortion and Rape..and the subsequent firestorm of Dems criticizing him and the GOP abandoning him..it looks like he just might win after all. It seems the vast majority of Missouri Voters have accepted his apology, and he is still within a point or 2 of Senator Claire McCaskill.  The big change is the number of folks that are still "Undecided"; but Sen. Claire is still hovering around 43-45% in the polls, that is usually a death knell for a sitting Senator or Congressman.  The undecideds usually break 2-1 for the challenger, so if 12% are undecided expect the incumbent to get 4% (49%) and the challenger would get the other 8% and put him at 51%.  We still have a few weeks, and Sen McC has lots of cash on hand, and Akin has been cut off from all the PAC's and the GOP money.   I think if he can stay within a few points for the next 2 weeks of  Missouri Polls, he will either start to get some slight help from those groups or quietly a new PAC will be created and money will flow from the PAC's and the party through that new organization. 

Romney/ Obama 2012 preview

It's the day after Labor Day and the official kick off for many folks going into to the Fall election.

The Dem's will launch their convention tonight in Charlotte, NC.  Romney appears to have gotten a 3-5 point bounce from last weeks event, despite Hurricane Isaac's attempt to disrupt things.

I have been chatting with several of my Left leaning friends and have found more and more that they are reserved to the idea that Obama is probably going to lose.  Now before I get myself all excited because of my own experiences in person and Social Media.  ( I think the "disappointed in Obama" meme is starting to take hold).

I have been watching the polls for months and I know that most polling doesn't mean much until a week after the second convention is over..but it's still useful to watch for trends.  Romney hasn't had a lead since Oct of 2011 vs. Obama.  He has a few times come to within  a half % according to  RCP Polls  yesterday they were tied for the first time. Today Obama is up .3%.   Now as I have explained to folks for the past several years you need to take any polling of RV (Registered Voters) and add 3% to the GOP candidate.  LV (Likely Voters), are more accurate.  If you take all of the RV polls over the past 3 months and Romney would be up from 1-3% rather than Obama, who has been trending 0-3% up since then.

Another survey was release today from Breitbart.com Here: Shrinking Dem Party.  This is the best collection of data about how much the Ground beneath Obama's feet has changed since he was elected in 2008 and the Dems took control of the House and Senate in Nov. 2006.

A few highlights:  
             In 2009 Dems controlled 60 of the seat in the Senate, today they have 51, and will probably lose     3-6 in November this year.
            In 2009 the Dems controlled 29 Governorship's in the US, It's down to 21 and 2-4 more will proba flip in November.
            Since Jan 2009, when Democrats controlled both chambers of the legislature in 27 states. The GOP controlled just 14. (The rest were split-control, with each party controlling one chamber.) Today, the situation is completely reversed, with GOP controlling 27 states to the Democrats 15. There are more GOP state legislators today than at any time since 1928. 

Lastly the Brietbart article referred to an study done by THIRD WAY and linked thru Politico HERE This states that of 12 "swing states" in 8 of those States 800,000 less Democrats are registered, and Independents are rising, (and the GOP is rising in most of those States).  4 of the 12 States do not require registration by party: Wisc., Virginia, Ohio and Michigan.  What happened in all four of those States in Nov 2010?  In each Case a GOP Governor won, (VA was 2009), In each of them the State Senate was taken over of the margin improved for the GOP in 2012, in the Assembly of each the GOP either took control decidedly or Improved it's margin.

The Hill today discusses the declining poll number in approval/ disapproval for the President.  54% think Obama doesn't deserve re-election.

Just based on that number alone Obama would lose today 46-54!  If that happens the down ballot erosion at the Senate level could be 55-43-2 result in the Senate! The House margin could grow by 5-25 more seats!

Youth voters are slightly less supportive than in 2008, and the enthusiasm/ historical motivation is way down. I suspect the return to normal youth voter participation.

Black voters in 2008 voted 93% in favor of Prez Obama; I suspect we shall see normalization to 87-90% and return to normal Black voter participation. Jewish voters are nowhere near as "thrilled" as they were in 2008; And the Hispanic voters in Swing states have been trending more GOP friendly than in the past decade.

Unions have had their treasury's cleaned out, they have lost almost 10% of their membership since 2008, and more of them are looking askance at their ability to save the President.  Look for decreased financial support, and more importantly decreased enthusiasm to help with the GOTV drive.

Debates.  Pres Obama hasn't done a debate in almost 4 years..except those 2 lame performances where Paul Ryan takes him to task politely and the "discussion " on the Tarmac with Gov. Jan Brewer in AZ.  Whereas you might recall how everyone was complaining that the GOP had too many debates in the Fall and Winter last year..that will leave Romney well prepared  to deal with any questions presented to him.  While Paul Ryan hasn't had a debate in a while..he will simply wipe the floor up with Joe Biden.  (Even Sarah Palin beat or tied Biden in 2008).

If I had to set the November results today I would say:
                     Romney 54          EV 320
                     Obama  45          EV 218
                     Gary Johnson 1%
Whatever % of the Vote Romney gets will determine the US  Senate race.  If he gets 54% expect 54-46 Senate with the GOP in control.

They were so many things that point to a Romney win it's becoming overwhelming.  Look for those polls to start breaking away to Romneys benefit in about 2 weeks.


Friday, August 10, 2012

Paul RYAN will be the Veep!

As i have predicted for 4 years Paul Ryan will be announced aboard the USS Wisconsin tomorrow morning in Norfolk Virginia.   Aviation reports have Romney's plane parked earlier this evening was in Janesville having traveled from Boston to Chicago.  word is the others were all contacted and told they were not the pick.  And Ryan's people have stated Ryan is on "vacation" in Colorado.

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/313677/boston-janesville-robert-costa

VERY EXCITING NEWS!!

TEA Party Express Endorses Neumann for Senate.

I have been embroiled in a fun, yet somewhat heated exchange on Facebook the past few days and the talk radio hosts have also chimed in on the issue.

A few days ago The TEA Party Express blew the lid off the Wisconsin Senate Primary.  A few days prior to this move members of some of the State TEA Party groups released a statement of support for Eric Hovde...Now they tried to be cute and claim the actual TEA Party groups were NOT endorsing.   It seems likely the TPX had let it be known they were NOT supporting Eric Hovde..and so the tried to launch a preemptive strike.  Not a bad strategy I applaud them!

However when TPX swooped in and thru it's support, endorsement and lots of $$$ in advertisement, the state groups went apoplectic!   Scowling and snarling on Facebook, Press release going out to anyone who would read them on the air.   The group that is trying to keep a centralized message..was behaving a divisively as possible, and claiming the other group was being divisive!!  It was almost comical. 

 I spent 2 days interacting with dozens of folks on both sides of the issue.  The fact that they are so EXTREMELY pissed is what is so funny.  If the TPX had endorsed Eric Hovde instead they would be skipping and jumping and none of these scurrilous charges about "Outside Groups don't speak for us.".

The fact is Racine TEA is the ONLY TP group in the state that COULD have made and endorsement..and the group couldn't come to consensus, so they did the Non-endorsement endorsement.

As most of my readers know I am, and continue to be, an enthusiastic supporter of the TEA Party movement.    I just felt this silly exchange was so transparent..I suspect behind the scenes the Eric Hovde campaign is in real chaos right now..and they suspect that Mark Neumann is going to actaually win this race after all.

The latest polls show very little change, with the slight exceptions of:

Jeff Fitzgerald is still going nowhere, and his voters are looking for a winner now.

Thompson's support has caved and he's in a virtual tie for 2nd.

Hovde is leading or second but so close to Neumann and Thompson to be within margin of error.  (folks are asking why should I vote for Hovde if he's running as Mark Neumann anyway,  why not vote for REAL thing instead).

The only one trending upwards is Neumann. In the virtual 3 way tie after having trailed for most of the past few months.  The latest polls came out BEFORE the TEA Party Express ad's hit the airwaves..and those ads are VERY GOOD!

Still a high number of undecideds, and low turnout.because so many people like all of these guys. ( I do too).

My prediction:  Mark Neumann wins with 32-38%

Bring on Tammy Baldwin!

For the record I am voting for and endorsing Mark Neumann,  But Hovde was my second choice.
Mark is the ONLY candidate who is running who has actual experience balancing the Federal budget.

May the best man win..and then beat Tammy Baldwin.

UPDATE:   An email sent from FreedomWorks was sent today asking the reader to Endorse Eric Hovde and list their TEA Party affiliate!!  Sounds like the FW/ Hovde campaign are worried!

Thursday, June 7, 2012

Walker's win Shocks City Hall

It looks like the folks in Racine's City Hall were under the delusion that Scott Walker was as hated by the Taxpayers as he is despised by the City Workers.    Foolish children!   Word is today that several highly paid workers at City Hall will be retiring soon, before the effects of Act 10 hit them and their positions. 

This is good news for the Taxpayers..  No offense but new workers are less expensive.

I also heard a rumor that Mayor Dickert is proposing a wage Roll-Back for city workers!  If this is true then I say Hurray!  I presume this would be done to avoid re-opening the Union contracts, and push back the enforcement of Act 10 until the last possible date. 

In 3 weeks we will know the Governors Study results about whether or not we must be forced to use the Pension system vs. a 401K type system for our employees.   It's looking very promising that the switch can be made.   Now if we can get those changes and some roll-backs in wages we can begin to start showing our Government is listening to the Taxpayers!  

Attention City Hall workers the voters of Wisconsin have spoken, we want our Govt smaller, cheaper and Union free!   Mayor John Dickert I think your finally listening!  I hope it's true. 

Assessing Obama from the Washington Post

The Washington Post on Obama
June 2 2012
Washington Post on Obama - FINALLY!
As I’m sure you know, the Washington Post Newspaper has always had a reputation for being extremely liberal, so the fact that their Editor saw fit to print the following article about Obama in their newspaper makes this a truly amazing event and a news story in and of itself. Finally, the truth about our radical President’s agenda is starting to trickle through the ‘protective walls’ built by our liberal media.
Matt Patterson (columnist for the Washington Post, New York Post, San Francisco Examiner)

Government and Society 

"Years from now, historians may regard the 2008 election of Barack Obama as an inscrutable and disturbing phenomenon, the result of a baffling breed of mass hysteria akin perhaps to the witch craze of the Middle Ages.

How, they will wonder, did a man so devoid of professional accomplishment beguile so many into thinking he could manage the world's largest economy, direct the world's most powerful military, execute the world's most consequential job? Imagine a future historian examining Obama's pre-presidential life: ushered into and through the Ivy League despite unremarkable grades and test scores along the way; a cushy non-job as a "community organizer"; a brief career as a state legislator devoid of legislative achievement (and in fact nearly devoid of his attention, so often did he vote "present") ; and finally an unaccomplished single term in the United States Senate, the entirety of which was devoted to his presidential ambitions.

He left no academic legacy in academia, authored no signature legislation as a legislator. And then there is the matter of his troubling associations: the white-hating, America-loathing preacher who for decades served as Obama's "spiritual mentor"; a real-life, actual terrorist who served as Obama's colleague and political sponsor. It is easy to imagine a future historian looking at it all and asking: how on Earth was such a man elected president?

Not content to wait for history, the incomparable Norman Podhoretz addressed the question recently in the Wall Street Journal: To be sure, no white candidate who had close associations with an outspoken hater of America like Jeremiah Wright and an unrepentant terrorist like Bill Ayers, would have lasted a single day. But because Mr. Obama was black, and therefore entitled in the eyes of liberaldom to have hung out with protesters against various American injustices, even if they were a bit extreme, he was given a pass. Let that sink in: Obama was given a pass - held to a lower standard - because of the color of his skin.

Podhoretz continues: And in any case, what did such ancient history matter when he was also so articulate and elegant and (as he himself had said) "non-threatening," all of which gave him a fighting chance to become the first black president and thereby to lay the curse of racism to rest? Podhoretz puts his finger, I think, on the animating pulse of the Obama phenomenon -affirmative action. Not in the legal sense, of course. But certainly in the motivating sentiment behind all affirmative action laws and regulations, which are designed primarily to make white people, and especially white liberals, feel good about themselves.

Unfortunately, minorities often suffer so that whites can pat themselves on the back. Liberals routinely admit minorities to schools for which they are not qualified, yet take no responsibility for the inevitable poor performance and high drop-out rates which follow. Liberals don't care if these minority students fail; liberals aren't around to witness the emotional devastation and deflated self esteem resulting from the racist policy that is affirmative action. Yes, racist. Holding someone to a separate standard merely because of the color of his skin - that's affirmative action in a nutshell, and if that isn't racism, then nothing is.

And that is what America did to Obama. True, Obama himself was never troubled by his lack of achievements, but why would he be? As many have noted, Obama was told he was good enough for Columbia despite undistinguished grades at Occidental; he was told he was good enough for the US Senate despite a mediocre record in Illinois ; he was told he was good enough to be president despite no record at all in the Senate. All his life, every step of the way, Obama was told he was good enough for the next step, in spite of ample evidence to the contrary.

What could this breed if not the sort of empty narcissism on display every time Obama speaks? In 2008, many who agreed that he lacked executive qualifications nonetheless raved about Obama's oratory skills, intellect, and cool character. Those people - conservatives included - ought now to be deeply embarrassed.

The man thinks and speaks in the hoariest of cliches, and that's when he has his teleprompter in front of him; when the prompter is absent he can barely think or speak at all.

Not one original idea has ever issued from his mouth – it's all warmed-over Marxism of the kind that has failed over and over again for 100 years.

And what about his character? Obama is constantly blaming anything and everything else for his troubles. Bush did it; it was bad luck; I inherited this mess. It is embarrassing to see a president so willing to advertise his own powerlessness, so comfortable with his own incompetence.

But really, what were we to expect? The man has never been responsible for anything, so how do we expect him to act responsibly?

In short: our president is a small and small-minded man, with neither the temperament nor the intellect to handle his job.

When you understand that, and only when you understand that, will the current erosion of liberty and prosperity make sense. It could not have gone otherwise with such a man in the Oval Office."




Saturday, June 2, 2012

Numbers from the TEA Party

Todays TEA Party in Caledonia was just fantastic.  Here's some numbers I picked up from folks at the event and the speakers.

4000+       Crowd estimates seemed to be 4000 or more.  The area covered with folks was much bigger than the BonFire TEA Party of Jan 2010.  We have lots of photo's that'll be looked at carefully to get a more accurate count.What an amazing day for a rally!

175          New jobs that will be announced in a local Racine County business on Monday, (nearly doubling it's workforce!)...It's Working!!

10,000      The number of "Early" voters in the city of Milwaukee.  The press has been reporting nearly 100,000 and up.  Clearly the Dems are in much bigger trouble than they thought. But go vote anyway!

350           The number of "Early" voters on Saturday, despite the huge rally in Milwaukee, they expected thousands!!

55% Decrease!   The number of AFSCME members in Wisconsin.  It looks Like if they aren't Forced to join they leave in droves!   It's Working!

2              Or Rather number 2!    Paul Ryan was there and he was fantastic as always.  And hta'ts why i still believe he will the Number TWO on the ticket with Mitt Romney this Fall!

2 Dozen   The number of volunteers that were at the Racine Victory Centers for ILLINOIS!!  While our volunteers were at the rally.  Thanks to Lake county for sending the troops North!!

#1            Special congratulations to Zane Navartil...who couldn't attend the rally, and neither did his parents..because Zane was playing Tennis in Madison in the State Championship Finals.  After a 2 day long event Racine's own Prairie School sophomore Zane Navartil wins the State Championship!!!   Way to go ZANE!  We are very proud!




Saturday, May 19, 2012

Kenya or Hawaii? Prez. 0 is Lying either way.

OK I have resisted becoming a "birther"..you know those fringy people who think Pres. Zero wasn't born in the US.  I am not saying I have become one but it looks like the original "Birther" was in fact Barack Obama himself...since he's the one who declared his birthplace in Kenya for over 16 years.  I'd like to have someone review the Oprah appearances, and see if she ever referred to his birth. 


Let's look at some of the issues here; as I understand them.  


If Barack was born in Kenya..he would still be eligible to be a "Natural Born citizen", because his mother was a citizen..regardless of who his father was.  BUT.... He would need to formalize that "condition" at some time in his life..and then be a US citizen for 7 years before being sworn in.  If he was born in Hawaii it wouldn't be required..unless he renounced his US citizenship at some point in his life.  


So why did the publicist write for over 16 years that Barack Obama was born in Kenya? The publisher made updates on Obama's Bio from 1991-2007.  Because he wasn't in the US Senate in 1991.  I suspect there will be updates in the late 90's after he became a St. Senator in Illinois.  Even when he gave his great speech at the 2004 Convention his Bio was still declaring he was born in Kenya. In fact he had already begun running for Pres in April of 2007 (according to Wiki ". His presidential campaign began in February 2007").  Then he or someone from his campaign realized the inconvenience of this little Bio. 


President Obama either pretended to be Kenyan born when he was trying to sell books, and get speaking gigs, or is pretending to be Hawaiian born so he can serve as Prez .  The Press in Kenyan has followed this man's career for many years and have often posted stories of his achievements over the years occasionally referencing his Kenyan birth.  His Kenyan Grandmother has often spoke publicly of his birth in her village.    The flight records for Hawaii from the week around his birth are missing.  It's long acknowledged that Stanley and Barack Sr. were in Kenyan the week before his birth, and flight records from before and after those weeks are available to research, but not that week. 


Add to that, the Presidents SS# is a Connecticut number..and yet BO has no record of living in CT.  The long form document of his Hawaiian BC is a fraud.  His draft registration seems to be suddenly "unavailable".  The state of Hawaii is on lock down over his BC.  The items in the newspaper in Hawaii are not proof.  In fact I know of postings for grandchildren born in Florida that are sometimes posted in the local Racine paper.  


How can Obama clear up this mystery?  It's easy.  Open up your college application records, and your transcripts while your at it. The birth certificate you submitted last year is not authentic.  I am nearly the same age as Prez O. And I am well acquainted of all the college entry doc's that were being circulated at that time.  They all asked for race, and nationality info on those applications.  Pell Grants, and BEOG's etc. all compiled that information..even dorm arrangements asked for race, etc.   Everyone knows that there were preferences given for minority students, and lower test scores were treated differently for minority students.  Add to that the exotic birthplace of either Indonesia, or Kenyan would be irresistible, for Occidental College, and Columbia, and later Harvard.  Bill Ayers parents were so proud of the "foreign born" student who's college education fees they were assisting with.  


Where am I going with this? What if it's true and he wasn't born in Hawaii? If at any point it can proven he'll not need to be impeached..he simply will cease to be able serve in the role of President.  VP Biden immediately is in charge.  If Obama was never a "legitimately" President, would any of the Laws he signed be valid? Would any of his Veto's be in effect or would all of those bills become laws?  


Make no mistake I don't want Joe Biden to be President ever!!  His careless mouth will embarrass the Presidency during whatever little bit of time he'd serve.   I think the media will have a hard time swallowing whatever BS the press secretary will throw at the Press this week as these real questions are explored.  There is no mistake here, this was calculated to sell books, or it was calculated to make him appear to be eligible to run for the Presidency.  


The real question is will the Sunday shows actually take up this topic?  If Obama is unable to come up with something quickly..his re-election will be greatly harmed..and he's already in trouble.  If this stuff starts to stick, will the DNC sit by and let Obama crash the party in yet a second Tsunami of defeat.  Is there a Barry Goldwater who can go into the Prez. office and tell the Prez he needs to suspend his campaign, or even resign. Who would they nominate instead, Hillary?  I think they have about 30 days to decide how they can best handle this situation, in either case it's obvious that Obama will say whatever is convenient at the time..he's now a known liar.  Will an American public already skeptical of this guy who was clearly not ready to be the Prez re-elect him.  


I suspect the Dems will go all in and hope that David Gregory, George Steph, Chris Matthews, Dan Rather, and the rest of the big network players will run cover for them for a few more months.  


I have been estimating that Romney would win this year by 2-3% and as much 300 EV's but if this stuff gets around in the folks head..it could be another 2010 meets 1984 sea change!  It'll take another generation for the Dems to ever regain control.  





Thursday, May 17, 2012

Walker 55%; Barrett 45%

I know it's just a little early to make predictions about the highly unusual recall vote on June 5th.  But I have been doing some info. gathering about what happened in the primary.

FIRST: the urban/Black voters in Milwaukee and Racine and even Madison didn't bother to even vote in the primary, despite the fact that more than half of the signatures the were gathered for this recall from those very neighborhoods.  Jim Widgerson last week reviewed the voters that showed up Here: I did an analysis as well Tea Party Trifecta.  Widgy demonstrated the GOP vote out performed the Dem vote by almost 200,000, My number was closer to 30,000.  Someplace between there would be 125K.

Second:  The DNC is not throwing much money at the Barrett campaign and most importantly the GOTV $$ of $500,000 and the money is not coming. That money is the lifeblood of Dem campaigns.  You see every Urban area and neighborhoods have a a "Guy" who gets paid to go do knock and drags in the central city.  I didn't believe this was actually done,  But I have learned that it's common in Chicago, New Orleans, Detroit, Milwaukee and even right here in Racine!  The primary battle didn't use this tactic..and now it'll be interesting to see if the Dems are willing to go voluntarily to the polls to vote Mayor Milquetoast.  I suspect not.

Third: Their are very few undecideds according to all the polls for the past several months, so it's gonna come down to turnout.   With virtually ZERO GOTV motivation the GOP outperformed the Dems in the primary by 100K, and tens of thousands of GOP voters didn't even know Walker had a challenger!

Fourth:  The people of Wisconsin already know both of these guys..they just had a showdown in Nov 2010, and it wasn't really a nail-biter, Walker won!  A number of Barrett voters accept the results and will not vote at all, some will vote to keep Walker.  And the national support for Barrett is drying up fast!

My estimate off 55/45  might actually be too low!

Monday, May 14, 2012

Sen Wanggaard or Lehman? NEITHER!!

Attn. Racine City residents:
 CRG asks the question:

Who will be your State Senator in January of 2013?

Van Wanggaard or John Lehman?

NEITHER!!

No matter who wins on June 5th, neither of them is “our” Senator anymore. Thanks to redistricting the Senate District #21 now includes Caledonia, Most of Mt. Pleasant and almost all of Kenosha County except for the City of Kenosha. It doesn't include the City of Racine any more. 

The city of Racine's new SD#22 will be an “open” seat for those of us in Racine. Sen Bob Wirch who has spent 16 years in office has decided he will move his home into the new district and will be running to represent the people of Kenosha and Racine cities. You might think he would run unopposed..but how many people who actually live in the City of Racine even know a hing about Sen. Bob Wirch?

Not very many. The good news for Racine is that Bob Wirch will have a challenger:

This morning WLIP am 1050 on the Lenny Palmer Show

PAM STEVENS announced she will be running for the SD # 22! 

Pam Stevens has been on the KUSD for the past 9 years where she served 2 years as Board President. Pam is a single Mom, Grandmother, business manager and is very interested in Educational oppurtunites for all children.  Ms. Stevens was a supporter of school choice for Racine and would support expanding the program to the KUSD district. Ms Stevens Is also concerned about crime in the KR region, and will work with law enforcement, the DA's office and the judiciary to improve our system.

CRG of Racine has asked Ms. Stevens to explore the extension of 794 into, and through the Cities of Racine and Kenosha.  CRG urges you to check her out her facebook page Pam Stevens for Senate,  or her web site Pamforwisconsin.org.

Please check her out, either Pam Stevens or Bob Wirch will represent those of us here in the City of Racine.

When things get tough Racine can count on Pam Stevens to stay in Madison and do her job, not run off to Rockford.  If Pam is elected Racine can count on her to keep the budget spending under control and not to raise taxes.  Racine can depend on Pam Stevens to watch for fraud and abuse of our welfare system.   Most importantly when a company wants to bring jobs to Wisconsin, whether its for mining, science, manufacturing or promoting our natural resources from boarder to boarder,  Pam Stevens understands the importance of  jobs and Wisconsins future.  Lower Taxes, smaller Govt. and more individual liberty.  At first blush Ms. Stevens looks like someone to watch!

Wednesday, May 9, 2012

TEA Party wins the Tri-Fecta!

Yesterday Voters in Indiana turned out to toss out Dick Lugar R-IN, who is tied as the longest currently serving GOP Senator in the US, (With Orrin Hatch of UT). Lugar lost by about 20 points in the open primary. The Club For Growth and other TP and RINO slaying groups..were out for another scalp.  The got rid of Lincoln Chafee, Arlen Spector, Sen Bob Bennett, Olympia Snowe took herself out this year, and several other pelts over the last 10 years.  (Orrin Hatch is also in their sites this year).

The second TP win yesterday was 2 fold..First of all most people didn't need to get out in Wisconsin for Scott Walker but 640 thousand did anyway.. another 5-30 thousand Republicans are thought to have voted in the Dem Primary to skew those results, mostly in Katie Falks favor.

Also in Wisconsin..the MILLION recall signers failed to show up and vote in the Dem primary seems like the really motivated folks were about 650 thousand. Makes you wonder how many more multiple signatures that Recall the Vote missed.

3rd victory was in NC where another ban on gay marriage was proposed..even though the TEA Party isn't focused on social issues, they still tend to represent traditional families and those values. They were surely out in force where the measure lost 61-39..even losing in Democratic strongholds in NC.   This bodes badly for Obama's plans to win NC twice in a row..  The DNC is hosting it's convention in NC this August and it lookes like it might backfire.  In the Democratic Pres primary yesterday Obama won 80% of the vote..but 20% of the DEMOCRACTIC voters, voted "No Preference" in yesterdays primary.

The TEA Party is alive and well..we're just not out doing rallies..we are actively in the game, working the polls, talking to our friends, and most importantly we are voting like never before!

Saturday, May 5, 2012

Obama 253 EV-> Romney 170.. it's not as bad, (or good) as it looks..

The road to 270 EV's is still 6 months away. One team or the other will get over confident when they see one side or the other closing in on the 270.  Most pundits, including me, think we are still a Bush-Gore/ Bush Kerry map of the country. If either of those races were held today with the same map 246-253 would be the total that either Gore or Kerry would have taken home.  There has been some "purpling' of some of the traditional Red and Blue states.  As we look today at the RCP  EV Map we can see that 253 is the number Obama has already reached.  9 States remain "undecided". (First of all there will tightening in these and other states over the next 6 months, but lets just look at it today).   2 States in the "und" column are Iowa and NH, Bush one each of these states once and lost each on once. Even if we grant them both to Obama it's only 263. Yes it is close.  But keep in mind both IA and NH have moved dramatically to the GOP/ TEA P over the past 7 years. the next 7 states in the "Und" column are NC, VA, OH, FL, CO, AZ, MO.   Of these NC, MO, and AZ are not going to be Blue states this time assuming its a close race. FL and VA are slightly favored at the moment by Romney in polls that mostly "Reg'd Voters" vs. Likely Voters.  I have learned over the years "likely" always is more accurate and is usually 3% more tilted towards the GOP. Also FL, VA, are both controlled by the GOP, and there is likely a very close Senate race in each. Sen Nelson is trailing Connie Mack in FL, and Allen and Kaine are neck and neck in VA.  NC has a Dem Gov. Bev Perdue who has decided she can not win re-election and thus the open Gov spot is leaning to the GOP, which bodes well for the GOP.

 All in that leaves us to look at Ohio for the decision. John Kasich and the GOP control all the seats of State Gov. the GOP is gathering strength in the Congressional delegation as Dennis Kucinich is gone from power. the Ohio Sentate is split Sen Rob Portman is being suggested as a VEEP candidate to run with Romney and Sen. Sherrod Brown is a freshman lefty who has a decent challenger this year in Josh Mandel.   Recent polling has Brown 44/ Mandel 41.. an incumbent below 50% at this time in a race is in SERIOUS trouble.  While the Ohio voters did smack back at Kasich's big changes a few months back..they are beginning to see the lay-offs were a worse choice, and I suspect some remorse for that retaliatory vote. So if it comes down to OHIO, which it looks like it will, (if the vote was today), Romney would win Ohio even though the polling of Reg'd Voter is slightly tilted toward Obama by a point or 2. (Reg'd voter +2 Obama= Likely voter Romney +1)

I also made the argument a few days ago on how the Upper Mid-west is very much in play. See Here

Wednesday, May 2, 2012

Is the TEA Party over; Or is it Taking OVER?

Many fellow TEA Partiers were not excited that Mitt Romney was gonna be the GOP candidate for President. They spent the past 3 1/2 years in denial and swinging their support from Sarah Palin, to Herman Cain, Rick Perry and even Rick Santorum and Newt had their turns as the favorite..but it was always gonna be Mitt..and I have been making the case for the entire time.  Now some folks believe the base won't turn out because Mitt's a RINO... I say BS!

The TEA Party had a chance to beat Mitt..but it would've needed to be done in 2011, but the TEA Party sat on it's $$ and energy last year for the most part and lost it's head of steam for over a year.   Now I understand the logic..and I do not think the TEA Party is over, quite to the contrary, I think the TP is already having an impact on the Fall 2012 elections..they just missed the Presidential race...but their actually better off because of it.   Mitt Romney was the best candidate to attract "Moderate" and "Indy" voters of anyone in the primary.  Because he'll be the non-threatening standard bearer the GOP and the TP will be able to make inroads they otherwise wouldn't be able to.

Next week the first scalp in the GOP/ RINO camp will be won in Indiana where Dick Lugar is going to lose the GOP primary to Richard Mourdock.  The Club For Growth, the TP base and other conservative forces have told Lugar to start packing.  Mourdock should have a pretty easy job of holding the seat for the GOP.  In Utah last week failed to grant Orrin Hatch a free ride in the primary, by just a few votes..now Hatch will be challenged from the "Right".  and could be upset and thus the second scalp.

Looking closer at Wisconsin..where Tommy Thompson the favorite should have an easy walk to victory..but his Old School "Conservatism", seems to have grown tired. Tommy's inability to hear and his age has begun to show.   Eric Hovde is vying against Mark Neumann for the TEA Party platform...Tommy could win if these 2 factions remain split.  Neumann has the better credentials, and better name recognition than Hovde..but Hovde is spending big bucks to get his name & message out there.  Next weeks GOP state party convention is expecting 2000 delegates to attend..many of these are the TP forces.  There are false charges the "Establishment" is trying to block credentials to protect Tommy Thompson.  I would warn the establishment against that idea, and suggest those spreading false info relating to this to stop!

The Senate races across the country are still very much in play at least 8 seats are within reach, and the mobilized, educated, and now armed with smarter phones, technology, and energy untapped by Barack Obama's failures..could see a sweep of these races.  I would also suggest Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown, and Michigan's Debbie Stabenow should be watching their backs.  Pete Hoekstra is a long time Congressman with great credentials..if he can get the Wolverine State's TP on his side he can win, same thing applies to Ohio's Josh Mandel.

Last week I wrote about the changes in the Upper mid-west. Those changes began 20 years ago with Gov Tommy Thompson and Gov John Engler.  The country is now 29R-19D-2I.  (And Puerto Rico even has a GOP Gov!).  There are 11 Gov races in November and the GOP looks like it will pick up 2 more seats and 2 others are toss-ups and both of those are currently held by Dems.

The real measure of the TEA Party to determine if they are a flash in the pan of history, or if they have become the backbone of the GOP/ Conservative Party.  The first real test will be next Tuesday May 8th in Indiana..followed on June 5th when Scott Walker wins his recall election.  Those 2 races will set the tone for the rest of the year.   So if you support the TEA Party right now is the time to put your money, energy, and time behind the TEA Party candidates across the country.  We have the chance to set back the Liberal/ Progressive agenda for another generation...and the fight starts NOW!!!!

Thursday, April 26, 2012

Can Romney Win the Upper Mid-west?

Looking at the RCP electoral college map The familiar maps of 2000 and 2004 come to mind. I think the best case scenario is we are still a narrowly divided country, and the electoral math will switch some safe Dem states away.  Add in the reallocation of Electoral votes from IL, OH, MI adds slightly less importance to our district.  Looking forward to November 2012 makes me wonder if Mitt Romney can change the math on these 6-7 states. IL is a lost cause and is Obama's home state..if Illinois is in play then Obama is losing by Mondale/ McGovern numbers.
In 2000 and 04 Bush won OH and IN twice and Iowa once, while barely missing Wisconsin both times.  Iowa was Florida close in 2000, but Bush lost it once and then won it in 2004.

What has happened since 2004?
 2006 was a cleansing year where the Dems took control of lots of swing congressional seats and control of both Houses. The GOP purged a lot of RINO's, in that same year.  2008 was  the Hope & Change/ American Idol year..and the Dems held both House and Senate and the GOP lost even more swing seats, including extremely tight Senate seats like Minn. where Al Franken stole an election.

 Then came the TEA Party, and the world was changed...But for how long?  In 2010 the TEA Party almost re-captured the Senate having been down by 20 seats!, it re-took the House having been down by 75 seats. Including capturing HALF of the so-called "Blue Dog" seats.  In the Lake Superior ring every single Congressional district switched from Dem to GOP control.  MI #1, 2 seats in WI and one in MN.  We have seen the retirement or defeat of long timers like David Obey, Bart Stupek, and now Dennis Kucinich is gone too! In 2010 GOP Gov's won in IA, OH, MI, WI, and Indiana already had Gov. Mitch Daniels. The GOP lost 2 very close races in both IL and MN for Gov..that took several days to sort out!

6 of 7 State Assbly's in these states are now under GOP control WI, MI, OH, MN, IA and IN.  5 of 7 State Senates in these states are under GOP control WI, MI, OH, MN and IN.  There is no question that the TEA Party almost beat Harry Reid in Nevada, the Senate Majority leader.  There is no question the influence of the TEA Party in 2010....but what about 2012?? We are about to see just how much influence this group of loosely organized activists will continue its resurgence and it's dramatic take over of the GOP and it's influence in purging the Dems of Blue Dogs, (Down by 7 from 26 already this year. and possible 3-6 more in November).

As I look at the map cited above, I can't imagine that the TEA Party and Mitt Romney's Michigan roots won't effect the electoral map this time around.   Furthermore if Paul Ryan or Rob Portman or Tim Pawlenty is the GOP VP it could add even more emphasis on the Mid-West and change the results.  I don't see where Obama goes to get the EV's he will lose in the Mid-West. Obama won IN and Ohio last time, and it is true that no GOP President has ever won without Ohio if Michigan is in play for Mitt he could afford to lose Ohio if it was needed, but I think that is unlikely.

Romney and Obama are showing close races in Ohio and Iowa..and at the moment WI, MN and MI are leaning Dem at the moment and IN is leaning GOP; IL is solidly Blue at the moment.  Nationally the Romney and Obama polls are very close to even at the moment. This Fall will also have several Senate races that could be very close. WI, OH, MI, and IN, and a special election in IL because the GOP Senator has decided to retire due to health reasons. MN has a Senate race but I think Sen. Amy Klobuchar D is safe at the moment.

With all of the strength of the TEA Party from 2012 and the newly "RED" power in these historically "BLUE" areas could be the beginning of the "Red" resurgence and the Rust belt could recover..as we change our Union attitude and embrace changes like lower taxes, control of spending, and Right to work laws like Indiana has done.  I think the reputation of Mitt as a "Moderate"  will actually drive the mid-west and the entire country well on it's way to the "Right".  They used to call the South the "Solid South"..now it's Solid "RED"..Wisconsin is the next Red State..and Michigan, Iowa, Ohio and maybe even Minnesota are trending our way!

Also even though it's not in the "Mid-west"..keep your eye on Washington State.





Saturday, March 24, 2012

How Rick Santorum can WIN today.

Today is the day Rick Santorum can pivot the race and actually win.....his Senate seat back.  Rick can not win the Presidency but he will probably win the Louisiana primary today.  Tonight in his acceptance speech he should gracefully accept the support of the folks in LA. Congratulate Romney on his second place finish..but then proceed to also congratulate Romney on his victory in the primary race as he is only a few delegates shy of 50% needed to win.  

Suspend the Santorum Presidential campaign, and announce that he will be declaring his intentions to run for the US Senate seat in Pennsylvania against Sen Bill Casey who beat him 6 years ago.  He can champion his Conservative credentials, apologize for endorsing Arlen Spector and run full speed ahead.  He would likely be the front-runner in a very crowded field.  Of course he'll have to re-instate his residence in Pennsylvania, he can be closer to young Bella and the children can spend less time travelling.

If Santorum retakes this seat for the GOP, Romney wins, the GOP wins, the Conservatives and the TEA Party are all winners.  Even if he loses the seat he'd be primed for a cabinet post in the Romney Administration should he defeat Obama as expected.  If not then Rick Santorum will have the mantle of the "Next Guy in line" for 2016 along with whomever the VP candidate might be.  Rubio, Ryan, Cantor, Kasich, Walker, all come to mind.

So Rick I really hope you heed my advice today.  If Michelle Bachmann had taken the same challenge the day she won the "Ames Straw Poll", she would be leading Sen Amy Klobuchar right now!

Newt I have no plan for you..but the sooner this Primary season ends the better off the GOP and TEA Party will be. BTW remember 2 weeks ago when everyone thought Newts voters would automatically switch to Santorum? In Illinois they all switched to ROMNEY!  Romney will probably beat Newt in Louisiana today as well.

Romeny is going to win the Wisconsin, Maryland and Wash D.C. in ten days.  Santorum probably can't even stop Mitt from getting the magic number now. the only States that Santorum still can win are Texas and Pensylvania, and MAYBE North Carolina.

Sunday, February 26, 2012

Veterans ID Farce; and the First Amendment


Today's J Times Editorial page had two Letters written by a Linda  Found: Here.

The very first blogger response was as follows:



"2laneblacktop said on: February 26, 2012, 6:52 pm
Please keep you religious views to yourself or share them with the people where ever at you practice what you call your faith. Not everybody believes in your stories. You wouldn't like it if all the Muslims or Buddhist or atheists posted letters telling you what you should believe in."

I was appalled at the response of 2 Lane''s comments: so here a=is my response to 2 Lane.  Followed by my Response to Linda Baker's comments regarding the Veteran and his Voter ID

Hey "2lane" how about a little "Tolerance" for Ms. Peterson's First Amendment rights:
Free Speech, Freedom of the press, and Freedom of religion. Or is that not on your "Co-Exist" bumper sticker?  Not everyone  doesn't believe that baby humans ARE humans at the moment of conception.  If they are not Humans, at the very moment..then what are they exactly? Just another inconvenient Bump in your "Black TOP"? When it comes to protecting human life against all nature of evil..I would side with Linda..you 2Lane are likely to find the rest of us easily disposal if we are an "inconvenience" to your "life".

As for the other Linda, Ms.Barker...Thanks for allowing yourself to be used as a TOOL in the Voter ID issue. Did you have this letter to the editor written ahead of time, before election day? Were you part of the STAGED show, that was fed to every newspaper and media outlet in the State? The facts are quite clear Veterans ID cards have a specific purpose..and it is NOT for Voter ID proof, it has no address on the card it's a benefits card that the Veteran earned and deserves..to mis- apply the great value of that card for POLITICAL purposes is a great disrespect to those who earned it, and those who give it as an honor to those who have served.  Gil the "Veteran" had a Photo Drivers License in his wallet..he chose NOT to present it!   He CHOSE not vote!!   Pro-Choice right gang?.All to make the silly point the "Vote Cheaters" wish to support and object to ID requirements, I am sure we shall see some liberal lawyer use this action to sue the State of Wisconsin.  Voter ID laws had been passed several times by the GOP in the Assembly and Senate, but Democratic Gov. Jim Doyle veto'd them repeatedly..because Jimmy D., the Unions, and the Dem's know that Wisconsin's electoral shift is so close..They know that without cheating the Dems might never regain control of Wisconsin's State Govt.  The fact is they will some day re-take control..but the Dem Party that retakes that control will be nothing like the extreme left Unionista owned and operated Thug-ocracy that has been in control of Wisc. Dem Party for decades!

CRG is proud that Gov Walker, Sen Wanggaard and Robin Vos supported this voter ID bill.  Assm. Turner, Barca, Mason and Sen Bob Wirch all voted against verification of the voter at the polls.  What could possibly be the reason to WANT a sloppy, unverifiable system? C'mon the answer is so easy even Team Donkey can figure it out!  See you almost every Tuesday this year with my Wisconsin DL/ Voter ID card in hand!

Voting integrity is worthy of ALL of our support! Cheating with recalls; tantrums over Veterans ID card for staged media hype belittle the value of voting to us All!

Monday, February 13, 2012

Dear Sarah, Don't Screw This Up!

I like Sarah Palin, I met her and I'm featured in the picture at the top of this blog standing behind her. I believe Sarah Palin energized the GOP base in the 2008 election, and if McCain hadn't screwed himself by suspending his own campaign he probably would've won.  The new movie coming out called Game Changer will be a hatchet job again on Sarah Palin, and try to set her up as the reason for the McCain failure.

  I write today about the 2012 election.  I have said for years Sarah could be the King-Maker if she did things right.  In 2010 Sarah jumped in the primaries for some governor and Senatorial campaigns most of them she landed on the right side.  3 glaring exceptions where Sarah's influence actually cost the TEA Party/ and the GOP movement seats: Notably Colorado both the Gov. and Senate races; Delaware with her endorsement of Christine O'Donnell; and most importantly Sharon Angle in Nevada..where we could've knocked off the Senate leader! The money we spent on trying to get those 2 seats could've been better spent to win in California or other states that were close.  I believe Sarah is doing the same thing this year with the Presidential Primary process..from her flirting with running for over a year..to her now clear desire for Newt Gingrich..who has absolutely no chance of beating Obama.  She seems to be secondly getting on the Santorum bandwagon now..but even in her interviews she is making all sorts of lame excuses why the race needs to continue. She is disingenuous at best.  She simply seems to be resistant to Mitt.  Sarah is poisoning the well for herself and the rest of us who need to WIN..we can't afford to "Place" or "Show"...we must win in November! 

Sarah use your clout while you still have it and get behind the one guy that win in November.  Maybe you'll get a Cabinet position if you want it..then you can build your credentials for future runs for yourself. I can't help thinking you want the GOP to lose this time so you can run in 2016; knowing if Mitt wins he and his subsequent VP could put you out to pasture fore 12-16 years. The fact is the "Movement" is bigger than you Sarah..and you are important..but you are not the leader!  I fear your wasting your potential trying to walk a line where you look disingenuous and petty.  

                                  A TEA Party Conservative

Monday, February 6, 2012

WASP's have been swatted from power in America.

When I was born JFK was President and there had been much controversy about Catholics taking orders from the Pope etc. This week Cardinal Designate Timothy M. Dolan is wrestling with the Obama Administration HHS Secretary Kathleen Sebilius, (a Cathoilc) over being forced to offer birth control and abortion as well as other services to their employees be included in their insurance plans.  This is a direct attack on the Church and it's teachings!  What happened to the First Amendment right of "freedom of Religion".  This is the Church/ State argument in reverse. TMR TM Dolan will win this battle on it's merits, and the Obama folks will have to cave.  Catholics since 1960 have been drifting back to the center, In fact Barack Obama won the Catholic vote 54-46 over McCain. (slightly better than Kerry or Gore).  The longer trend is very close to the center right now.  Team Obama can't risk losing 2 or 3% without seeing several states in the Electoral vote slip away from his grip.  Florida, OH, PA, NJ, IN, MI and even WI could fall off his list.

This topic got me to wondering today when Nancy Pelosi (a Catholic), inserted herself in the fray in opposition to TMR Timothy Dolan. I decided to see just how many non-Protestant's are in control of our Govt. You might be surprised:

Barack Obama           President                                                                    Congregationalist/ Protestant
Joe Biden                   VP                                                                             Catholic (1st ever Cath VP).
John Boehner              Speaker of the House                                                Catholic
Eric Cantor                 House Majority Ldr.                                                  Jewish
Nancy Pelosi              House Minority Ldr  (and former speaker)                  Catholic
Harry Reid                 Senate Majority LDR                                                 Morman
Mitch McConnell       Senate Minority LDR                                                  Baptist/ Protestant
Supreme Ct Justices   Ginsberg, Kagan, Breyer                                             Jewish
Supreme Ct justices   Thomas, Scalia, Sotomeyer, Roberts, Kennedy, Alito   Catholics
Kathleen Sebilius       HHS Secretary                                                             Catholic
Several other Cabinet members.

6 or 7  of the US Senators are Morman. (Mormans are only 2% of the overall population in the US, yet are 6.5% of the Senate)
10 are Jewish (Jews are only 1.5% of the US Pop. and yet represent 10% of the Senate!)
I didn't even try to count the Catholics!

Looks like the WASP's and the rest of us are getting along pretty well despite our "religious" differences.  I think we'll be fine with a Morman in 2012.

UPDATE:   Aaron Blake discusses the possible VP nominee choices 4 of the top 5 are Catholics: and several others:  THE FIX

Wednesday, February 1, 2012