Thursday, August 25, 2011

Virginia is for "RED" Lovers UPDATE 9/6

Virginia is coming home.  The Dems had been thrilled from 2006-2008..as they felt they had finally grabbed back a southern state from the "right". Former GOP Sec of the Navy, James Webb switched parties and ran against George Allen and in a very tight race won the Senate Seat, taking control of the US Senate,.and knocking Sen. George Allen out of contention for the 2008 Presidential sweepstakes, .  The demographics in northern VA have been drifting to the "left" as more DC suburbanites fill in those northern areas.  But the REST of the Old Dominion, hasn't changed..and the trend is swinging back the "right" way.  Yesterdays primaries in VA show the GOP candidates have a very strong chance of retaking the State Senate.  They already re-captured the Gov's office in 2009, (the beginning of the anti-Obama shift, and the first round of TEA Party successes). The GOP controls the House of Delegates and are behind in the Senate   22-18.  The GOP has 16 uncontested races, and the Dems face a challenger in 16 of their races. A switch of 3 seats gives the GOP control at 21.

Former Sen and Gov. George Allen is in a 2012 race against Dem Rock star and also former Gov. Tim Kaine, that race is close so far.  but surely the 2011 possible change could make things look bad for Kaine and Obama in 2012 who won the usually "red" state in 2008.  Obama;s amp to electoral victory without those usually "Red" states like VA, OH, FL,IN, CO and Nevada which he won in 2008 will cost him re-election.  In 2008 he also managed to hang onto IA, NM and NH which had flipped back and forth in 2000 and 04.  George Allen should be able to re-take his Senate seat, in 2012.  VA will be much like WI and OH and even MI which have changed over their state govt's. to the GOP and the TEA Party is strong in those areas..Obama is in serious trouble if he can't hang on to those States.

Keep your eye on VA this November as a precursor of what Nov 2012 will look like.
Interesting article that came out 3 days ago: Obama in trouble in Virginia!

Monday, August 15, 2011

Ames leaves 3 tickets to the White House.

Even though Rick Perry didn't show up for the debate or the Straw Poll he gets a ticket to ride.  He comes in as the second place in the latest polls, even before he gets in.  Romney is still the front-runner, and the third ticket goes to....Michelle Bachmann. 

Michelle should get out RIGHT NOW and go run for Senator of Minnesota..because she has hit her zenith in the Presidential sweepstakes.  I do think a woman can win the Presidency but not her, not yet.  She handled herself with grace and class on the Sunday shows after the Straw Poll.

I have long predicted Mitt Romney would be the winner of the Primary races...but even back in February I had  stated it depended upon Perry's decision.  So now that he's in this race..What do I think??   Well I still think it's too early to tell.  I want to see how he does in a few TV interviews, and the next debate is in September..Also the press has been doing some digging and I've heard a few stories that could be trouble..but I'm waiting to see which are substantiated and which are just lies and rumors.   Team Obama has no serious resume to run on..so they will spend 3/4 of a Billion dollars to trash, dig-up, smear and tear apart the GOP candidate. So it's in our best interest to thoroughly vet Gov. Perry.   He's been in public office for 23 years..so he has a history of votes, and projects, and people he was connected with.

Here's how I see it at this point from now until January if Bachmann stays in the race:    Bachmann and Perry will duke it out for the TEA Party and Ron Paul will holding on to his slice of the TP at the same time..and Ron Paul isn't gonna fold his tent. Thus in a sort of 3 way race for half of the GOP voters, a back and forth action will occur with one of them winning Iowa Caucus...But Romney will have the other half of the voters of the GOP..in the mean time he can stay out of the fracas as they duke it out.  He wins NH, NV, and MI...Bachmann and Perry split Iowa and SC..and the showdown is in Florida where Perry breaks out over Bachmann in either 1st or 2nd place, and Romney takes the opposite, Bachmann 3rd and she'll drop out..  Then it's a shoot out with Mitt Romney who by then will have 3 wins and 2 seconds going into Super Tuesday...I think Romney wins most of them and the race is over..with Ron Paul grabbing 10% in any of the rest of the races. 

I can't help but add...If Michelle leaves right away Cain will fill her shoes in the above scenario..except that he won't beat Perry..  the smart money is still on Romney..because even though the TEA Party/ conservative have a lot of power this primary will engage most of the GOP voters..and half of the votes are in BLUE States...where Romney is neither a "Crazed" Bachmann or another "Texas Cowboy" as in Bush....rather Perry!   The folks in the middle are not afraid of Romney and will feel very comfortable putting him in the Oval Office.  He will drag along with him very long coat-tails in the Senate and Congress and down ballot offices.  Perry can win..but Romney will give us a landslide!   PA, CT,WI, MI, NJ, NM, NH, IO, WA, and maybe even Oregon and New York State!

Saturday, August 13, 2011

Straw Poll 2011 Predictions.

First thing to remember is the previous 5 Straw Polls record of winners is not very good.  It predicted twice (and tied once) the winner of the Iowa Caucus and only twice the winner of the Republican Nominee.  (Bob Dole was a tie in 1995,  W was correctly selected in 1999), and only ONCE has it selected the winner of the Presidency.   President Pat Robinson never made it very far:^).    Last time around approx 15,000 voters participated, and you have to PAY to vote, so $$$ can effect your turnout and the vote.  (BTW John McCain took took 10th place last cycle!)

With that said it's still a fun excersize to look at the race, so here's my predictions:

With 2 Minnesotans in the race the Bachmann vs. T. Paw is the most intriguing.  T.Paw has practically moved to Iowa for the past 4 months..but I still think he will do 4th place at best.  If he makes the top 3 or somehow beats Bachmann he'll be reinvigorated, if he takes 4th or worse I think he drops out soon.
Michelle Bachmann I predict will win closely, or second place.  It will be a real boost to her and will mobilize some of the TEA Party support from the Herman Cain campaign and whatever T.Paw's supporters might remain. *

Herman Cain should come in 4th or 5th probably very close to T.Paws %'s.   He'll be able to stay in with those numbers..If he does worse than 5th he might decide it's not his year, but I think he'll soldier on.  He's a great guy to have in the race!

Ron Paul should take 2nd place..but could pull out a first place..every Straw Poll he gets into his peeps show up and vote, and he usually wins.  the RPer's are very dedicated and I think RP stays in the race thru the end, even if he's an also ran.  He'll keep making his case which will allow Romney or Perry look more moderate to the rest of the electorate.

Mitt Romney doesn't have to place in the top 5 to be considered a win.  (He won last time with 32% of the vote, but he also wrote out some BIG checks to get his people to the event, Interestingly Mike Huckabee supporters used Mitt's money, and his buses, to get to the Ames event and then voted for the Huckster who placed 2nd on Mitt's $$$), Romney decided not to pay to play this time..but I still think he will come in 3rd, anything better than 3rd will scare away a lot of the lesser candidates, who might decide to jump out of the race.

So my prediction is:
Michelle Bachmann 1st
Ron Paul                2nd
Mitt Romney          3rd
Tim Pawlenty         4th
Herman Cain          5th

Santorum, Gingrich and Huntsman could find themselves lower than Perry and Palin who might be write-in candidates.  Should either Perry or Palin place in the top 5 using write in ballots only...it'll be a huge factor to the Bachmann, Cain and Pawlenty campaigns.  Romney and Paul will be uneffected at this point.

Consequences:
I think Huntsman and T.Paw will drop out in the next few weeks, unless they out perform today.  I still think Palin will not run.  If somehow Herman Cain places last he will probably drop out..but i don't think he'll be last.

*Now that Rick Perry is getting in and is trying to Big foot the Ames Poll by announcing today...If I was Michelle Bachmann, and I won the Straw Poll as I have suggested..she should immediately, this week, announce that she is throwing her support behind Perry , Romney, or the TEA Party..and declaring that she will be better running against Amy Klobuchar for the US Senate seat in Minnesota.  Her credentials will make her the instant front-runner in that primary, and will give Klobuchar a serious run, in an otherwise safe seat for her.  If Bachmann's win comes today..this will be her peak in the campaign..she can either capture that energy and win in a bottle, or become more irrelevant every day from now on.


Friday, August 12, 2011

Winners and Losers @ Ames Debate

Ames, Iowa;  Last nights debate was entertaining for geeks like me and also to casual viewers who caught highlights on other media.  Each candidate appeared prepared for a wide range of questions and most answered readily without notes.

Tim Pawlenty Loser, Sorry T Paw..you really needed his one. The Fox team wanted drama and you were the target, so they made u go after Bachmann and Romney to give u a chance to take out either one of them.  While you tried to keep it nice..they both came out on top of the exchanges.  You looked nervous and frustrated, like you knew you were swinging and missing. It's time to consider a run for US Senate against Amy Klobuchar...Good Luck!  (See comments below under Michelle Bachmann).

Rick Santorum, Loser (sort of).  While I want to like both Tim and Rick they needed to raise their profile and Rick was combative..his side position was a disadvantage to him and while his discussions with Ron Paul were worthy of credit..but he's just not gonna break thru.. I suggest Rick you should also go back and run for Senate in PA..The GOP will probably win this time and you will get your seat back from Casey.

Ron Paul, Winner.  Paul remained calm during the discussions and firm to his very Libertarian non interventionists stances.  He loses there amoung the right..and Rick Santorum gave him a well deserved task taking on the Iranian issue and won the crowd.  But again RP held his own and looked competent.  Still has ZERO chance to win the Nomination and even less chance of the General..but I think he'll be the last man standing besides the winner.  I will confess the stuff he said 3 years ago on the economy is coming true because of the irresponsibility of Prez. O's spending. 

John Huntsman, Loser.  His first kick at the cat..and Huntsman looked timid and very nervous..but his policies and positions on Social issues and his reason for serving under Obama  were not well received, and I think his campaign ends soon.  I think he could be a solid cabinet member in a Romney or Perry administration though.

Michelle Bachmann, Winner.  She once again came out looking good and swinging for the bleachers, and she was great in her exchanges with T Paw.  She kept her cool.  When she rec'd the absurd question about submitting to her husband..she let the crowd boo the question took a deep breath and then  handled the question deftly.  It was even better than her response to Chris Wallace's question a few weeks ago about whether she was a "Flake".  Michelle I have an idea for you.  You will probably win the Straw poll tomorrow, as Rick Perry gets in the race;  You should refocus your campaign as a Senator against Amy Klobuchar..your exiting at the top of your game would be an ideal launching point for the Senate.  Simply use the reason that your views will well represented by Romney or Perry and you can best serve the people of Minnesota as the next Senator! You have the money, and the name recognition now to carry this off!

Newt Gingrich, Winner.  Newt came out swinging at the MEDIA!! Nicely done considering he was paid by Fox News for the past 8-10 years.  He also brought up some great points about Dodd Frank and other things that are making a mess of the country.  He held his own..but he still can't win the race.

Herman Cain, Winner.   HC showed his wit and charm and his crowd pleasing abilities.  His difference between the rest of the crowd as a businessman.  He showed the class of someone who is learning as he goes, and that jumping into decision or wars etc. without all the facts is dangerous.  Nice job Herman!  I don't think it gets you over the hump like your first surprise performance..but I'm watching.

Mitt Romney, Winner..Once again Mitt was calm, cool and collected, with a genuine competence that is tough to miss by the average observer. The Hard right TEA Party folks still want to hate him..but since they are so divided amoung Bachmann, T. Paw, Paul and Cain and waiting on Perry.  Romney is just holding his positions for now and letting the rest duke it out.  He handled the RomneyCare issue well again. and made it clear he'll kill it when he has the chance.

Overall I'd call the Debate as follows:
Romney 1st
Bachmann 2nd
Gingrich 3rd
Paul or Cain 4th.

This debate will have no serious effect on the Straw poll, T. Paw wasn't gonna do very well anyway. 

Loser: Sarah Palin for her classless visit of her Bus trip to Ames.  Sarah either get in the race or get the hell out of the way!!  Your squandering your King Making status.
Loser: Rick perry for trying to stomp on the Ames Straw Poll by announcing the same day.  Not a huge faux pas but still a bit tacky. 

Tomorrow's Blog will be my predictions for the Straw Poll results.

Wednesday, August 10, 2011

Is Bob Wirch having trouble with his base??

In Kenosha the Wirch campaign is focusing on Pro-Life and Pro-Choice issues??  Why would they do that?  They are avoiding issues and just focusing on Jonathan Steitz' "Corporate Lawyer" status.  This is interesting considering those are issues you run to when your trying to mobilize your BASE! With 6 days left Wirch's folks can't even get the Base mobilized?    After yesterdays failure to capture the Flag of 3 Seats in the State Senate..and the Meltdown from Zelinski and Tate..it could be they see this seat slipping away.   Polling from Monday (Before the vote), shows this race is Tightening fast.. Low single digits!!!  Last week it was 10 points..Steitz is closing fast and thousands of new dollars cascaded into the campaign office since last night!  JS has the momentum..and Wirch's folks are worried.   With only 2 races left..it'll be a rocking week!

Party ID is is shifting..and It might not be a blip!

Since 2004 Rasmussen Reports has been tracking Party affiliation.  Most of the past 50 years the Dem's have had the lead in affiliation across the country, since this tracking began it has been consistently D over R.  Occasionally the R's get close but then the D's pull away.In 2008 and 2009 the D's were around 40% and the R's were around 32% behind by as much 8.5% at on point.  From Jan 2004 thru Nov 2010 the D's were ahead every single month..but something happened in November 2010.  The success of the TEA Party and it's connection with the Republican's was seen as good place for 36% of the people to self identify with!  In December it moved to 37% and was a 3.3% advantage over the D's. All in the 7 months since the first time the R's overtook the D's 6 months the R's have held that lead.  As of May 35.6% over 34%.   This trend seems to be gaining a foothold and perhaps the R's have finally gotten back to their Conservative roots and the electorate is ready to see those policies applied to control spending and the Dems have been shown for their Big govt. ideology.

Round 1 leaves Sen's. Holperin & Wirch in a lurch!

Perhaps it's ironic, that the GAB put the Dem's and Repub's races in 2 different weeks.   The Dem's yesterday FAILED to achieve the 3 seats neede to take back the Senate, and many of the Dem/ Union operators have begun to leave the state.  I assume they'll be taking their checkbooks with them.  That is BAD NEWS for Wirch and Holperin.  The energy is out of the sails of Unionista's and the original argument of recalling State Senators who failed to show up for work returns to the fore-front.  If Stietz and Simac can get that message out..and the GOP and TEA PArty voters GOTV they will take back 2 seats and the entire argument will have been for naught!  Help if you can, ($$ or effort).  If "Our" side keeps the energy high we can win them both!  A week or 2 ago I was told the Stietz race was listed as #8 of 8..if all the races had been held the same week this race would've been written off.  Now it can be the lynchpin in holding the Conservative majority!  What reason do the Dem/ unionista's have to fight this race anymore?

Afterthought.  The newly drawn districts for State Senate will make the 2 seats the GOP lost much easier to take back in a rematch.