Wednesday, December 28, 2011


Still waiting to hear the weather forecast for Iowa on Tuesday Caucus day..but here goes anyway!  The chatter this week has been the rise of Ron Paul, and Santorum's endorsements from the hard line Christians.  Also the chatter has been what if Romney is suddenly trying to win Iowa?    Has Romney's "steady as she goes" campaign actually worked out?  After a year of being the leader in the polls until Bachmann made a run up, only to fall back a week later to Perry's surge, followed by his stumbles and the rise of Cain..only to be followed by Gingrich's arc of Triumph..Today barely leading the field is Ron Paul by a 1/2% and his trend is down in Iowa and Nationwide. The questions is will one of these get a new rise? Or is the guy who has been in second place all year get the win with all the marbles beginning in Iowa?   Santorum and Huntsman never got a day in the sun..but maybe they will at last..

So here is my prediction for Iowa next Tuesday:
If the weather is Cold and/or snowy Ron Paul will win. if not it's gonna go like this:
Mitt Romney top 3 and I predict he'll win if the weather is mild.
Ron Paul second place possibly quite close maybe only one or 2 points.
Rick Santorum will surprise and amaze with a somewhat distant 3rd
Rick Perry and /or Newt will be right behind Santorum. Could be quite a tight cluster.
Bachmann next and lastly Huntsman.

If this happens Santorum will get a nice spike in the polls, Bachmann quits on Wed or Thursday.  Huntsman will need to beat Santorum in NH a week later or he will be gone.  Gingrich is already pulling some effort from Iowa and heading to SC realizing that will be his last chance to succeed.  If Romney wins as I predict he will win New Hampshire and do very well in SC (even if he doesn't win). Romney wins Florida and then Nevada..and cakewalks thru the rest of the races. The only one who can keep the race interesting is Rick Perry but he'll need to WIN South Carolina, and then win or take 2nd in Florida to keep it interesting.

Drop-outs in this order:
Perry  (If 6th or 7th  in Iowa he'll drop out, and the money will go to Romney)
Romney of course Wins the whole thing. And defeats Obama with over 300 electoral votes.

Looking at the latest polls Who is rising?  Romney, Perry, and Santorum are up.
Falling are Ron Paul is fading and Gingrich is in collapse. Perry, Bachmann, and Huntsman.

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