Saturday, December 3, 2011

The End of the Cain Train

Today Herman Cain dropped from the GOP race for 2012, before the first Caucus or Primary was held.  I have never thought he was going to win..but I have to admit for a few moments in the past few months I thought I just might be wrong.  (Cain didn't lose because of his alleged womanizing..he lost because he had trouble getting beyond his own headline of 9-9-9, added to his lack of a cogent understanding of Libya and the Collective Bargaining issue.)  Cains' campaign was sunk from the moment Mark Block was seen smoking in his advertisement).  My February prediction of a second place finish for Cain was blown due to the allegations.  I will now re-direct my "Cain" prediction to Ron Paul who will finish second rather than third in the delegate race.

Today it's Gingrich out front and Mitt holding in second.but slipping just a little.  The question is what happens to the rest of the Cain supporters?  In the past several weeks the rise in Newt has been a mirror of the collapse of Cain, Cain's rise was a direct mirror of the Perry collapse 6-8 weeks ago. So prediction time again:  I think the Cain supporters are Hell bent to not let it be Mitt that they will split between Perry, Bachmann and maybe a few to Ron Paul.

Now that the press has had fun ripping apart Herman Cain over unsubstantiated allegations the next target is of course Newt..Newt's history will now be retold for all to see.  His third wife Calista will need to stand beside him and her plastic hair and appearance will be seen by a much wider audience than has been seen so far.  It will not look good for Newt.  Gingrich's inability to deflect these charges..because he's already admitted to them will force the TEA Party folks to take a more discerning look at him, and all of his assorted positions, and how the commercials that will be made by the Doms/ Obama campaign.  Newt's polling #'s will begin to taper off and by Christmas he'll be tied or slightly behind Romney as he soars into a first place finish in Iowa on Jan 3rd. a week later Romney wins New Hampshire..and South Carolina becomes a must win for Newt or Perry if either can somehow manage to place 3rd in Iowa.
Predictions:
Iowa will be Romney, Paul and Gingrich with Perry a possible 4th.  New Hampshire will fall Romney, Paul, Huntsman or Perry.  If I'm right SC will be the deciding factor.  If Romney wins Iowa handily, he will be able to cakewalk to the nomination.  Ann Coulter is right Let's just get behind Mitt and go win this thing!

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