Still waiting to hear the weather forecast for Iowa on Tuesday Caucus day..but here goes anyway! The chatter this week has been the rise of Ron Paul, and Santorum's endorsements from the hard line Christians. Also the chatter has been what if Romney is suddenly trying to win Iowa? Has Romney's "steady as she goes" campaign actually worked out? After a year of being the leader in the polls until Bachmann made a run up, only to fall back a week later to Perry's surge, followed by his stumbles and the rise of Cain..only to be followed by Gingrich's arc of Triumph..Today barely leading the field is Ron Paul by a 1/2% and his trend is down in Iowa and Nationwide. The questions is will one of these get a new rise? Or is the guy who has been in second place all year get the win with all the marbles beginning in Iowa? Santorum and Huntsman never got a day in the sun..but maybe they will at last..
So here is my prediction for Iowa next Tuesday:
If the weather is Cold and/or snowy Ron Paul will win. if not it's gonna go like this:
Mitt Romney top 3 and I predict he'll win if the weather is mild.
Ron Paul second place possibly quite close maybe only one or 2 points.
Rick Santorum will surprise and amaze with a somewhat distant 3rd
Rick Perry and /or Newt will be right behind Santorum. Could be quite a tight cluster.
Bachmann next and lastly Huntsman.
If this happens Santorum will get a nice spike in the polls, Bachmann quits on Wed or Thursday. Huntsman will need to beat Santorum in NH a week later or he will be gone. Gingrich is already pulling some effort from Iowa and heading to SC realizing that will be his last chance to succeed. If Romney wins as I predict he will win New Hampshire and do very well in SC (even if he doesn't win). Romney wins Florida and then Nevada..and cakewalks thru the rest of the races. The only one who can keep the race interesting is Rick Perry but he'll need to WIN South Carolina, and then win or take 2nd in Florida to keep it interesting.
Drop-outs in this order:
Perry (If 6th or 7th in Iowa he'll drop out, and the money will go to Romney)
Romney of course Wins the whole thing. And defeats Obama with over 300 electoral votes.
Looking at the latest polls Who is rising? Romney, Perry, and Santorum are up.
Falling are Ron Paul is fading and Gingrich is in collapse. Perry, Bachmann, and Huntsman.
"Dear Santa, I have everything I need. I live a happy and fulfilling life. But there is just one present that I would 'LOVE' to have this year and I promise if you grant me my wish, I will never ask for anything every again. Santa, could you please, please, please bring me a third party presidential candidate that has true Honesty, Integrity and Courtesy mixed with above average Intellect. Thank You Santa! If you do this for me Santa you will paint a smile on every human living on this planet. Thank You Santa!!! I will leave you extra cookies this year and I promise my cats won't drink your milk this year ;)" D You might agree with him..but I responded as follows:
Dear D.; Santa asked me to let you know that on numerous occasions he has delivered assorted Third Party candidates and you the American people have squandered that opportunity since the last really good one..Honest Abe....Abe was the third party candidate that was gonna Unite the American people..well a few weeks Later the country went into a full on Civil war that caused the deaths of Millions of Americans. Sure it eventually worked out for the better, but some things will never be the same. Just a few more examples of answering your gift "requests".. Strom Thurmond, George Wallace, (Which of those racists would you have liked to see succeed?), Then there is Ross "the nut" Perot, who caused Bill Clinton to win, and thus cause the need for a second half of the War in Iraq and 5,000 dead Americans, and countless Iraqi's; Another is Ralph Nadar, and Pat Buchanan, both of whom caused the close disputed election of 2000 and has created a modern civil war in American creating deep divisions amoung friends and familes..that is SO FAR non-violent. So Dan if your need for another 3rd Party guy to come in a god forbid WIN!! He, or she would be so divisive from BOTH sides..the the Country would be even more UNGOVERNABLE than it is now. How on "God' Green Earth" can that be GOOD? Santa's helper...... :^). BTW how about chocolate chips this year? Santa's Helper.
Sometimes we think the answer is something else, but it really isn't usually.
Today Herman Cain dropped from the GOP race for 2012, before the first Caucus or Primary was held. I have never thought he was going to win..but I have to admit for a few moments in the past few months I thought I just might be wrong. (Cain didn't lose because of his alleged womanizing..he lost because he had trouble getting beyond his own headline of 9-9-9, added to his lack of a cogent understanding of Libya and the Collective Bargaining issue.) Cains' campaign was sunk from the moment Mark Block was seen smoking in his advertisement). My February prediction of a second place finish for Cain was blown due to the allegations. I will now re-direct my "Cain" prediction to Ron Paul who will finish second rather than third in the delegate race.
Today it's Gingrich out front and Mitt holding in second.but slipping just a little. The question is what happens to the rest of the Cain supporters? In the past several weeks the rise in Newt has been a mirror of the collapse of Cain, Cain's rise was a direct mirror of the Perry collapse 6-8 weeks ago. So prediction time again: I think the Cain supporters are Hell bent to not let it be Mitt that they will split between Perry, Bachmann and maybe a few to Ron Paul.
Now that the press has had fun ripping apart Herman Cain over unsubstantiated allegations the next target is of course Newt..Newt's history will now be retold for all to see. His third wife Calista will need to stand beside him and her plastic hair and appearance will be seen by a much wider audience than has been seen so far. It will not look good for Newt. Gingrich's inability to deflect these charges..because he's already admitted to them will force the TEA Party folks to take a more discerning look at him, and all of his assorted positions, and how the commercials that will be made by the Doms/ Obama campaign. Newt's polling #'s will begin to taper off and by Christmas he'll be tied or slightly behind Romney as he soars into a first place finish in Iowa on Jan 3rd. a week later Romney wins New Hampshire..and South Carolina becomes a must win for Newt or Perry if either can somehow manage to place 3rd in Iowa.
Iowa will be Romney, Paul and Gingrich with Perry a possible 4th. New Hampshire will fall Romney, Paul, Huntsman or Perry. If I'm right SC will be the deciding factor. If Romney wins Iowa handily, he will be able to cakewalk to the nomination. Ann Coulter is right Let's just get behind Mitt and go win this thing!