Wednesday, September 28, 2011

Watch the Money and the Polls next week.

Next week Mitt Romney will no doubt lead the field in cash raised.  These past 10 days have been rough for Rick Perry.   2 lousy debate performances and just at the end of the first reporting period that Perry is involved in.  I expect Romney could out fund raise Perry 2-1.  Romney is gathering lot's of support from Obama's Wall Street donors of 2008.  While, as of today, Perry is leading in the National Polls on RCP by about 6% over Romney.  New polls in the past few days from Ohio, Penn, Iowa and Florida are coming out from PPP Polling are showing Romney ahead of Perry by 4-6%.  By next week when the $$$ Race numbers are released I presume Romney will return to his front-runner status.  Perry will drop to second and perhaps even third.  Cain seems to have absorbed Michele Bachmann's voters. Huntsman and Johnson seem stuck in the basement.  Gingrich and Santorum are moving upwards slightly and Ron Paul has 11% of the electorate. I think after the cash reporting Johnson, Gingrich, and perhaps even Bachmann will drop out.  I could be wrong for one exceptional reason..Debate performances are essentially free, show up and get a hotel room and your in the debate.  Lot's of exposure for very little money.

Update 10/17  Romney took second in the cash raising race. Perry out-raised by a little, but most of those funds were right out of the gate when he jumped in.  As he got closer to the  filing deadline I suspect his donations had dropped significantly, at the same time Cain was picking up big donations in the last week to ten days. 

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