Friday, September 23, 2011

Is it already a one man race? Maybe.

I have been making predictions on the 2012 campaign since Feb of this year. February Predictions Most of the scenario I put forward has come to pass, just as I predicted.  In my original posting I mentioned the possibility that Rick Perry could jump in the race and it could mess up my scenario, I suggested a Perry run was 50/50. As it happened, he did get in the race and launched to the top of the polls.  Many Conservatives and TEA Party folks were waiting for the "Great White Hope"..and they believed Perry was it.  I have cautiously watched and waited while the Perry campaign, the media rectal exam, and the critics to have their way with him. Perry has handled his new fame pretty well until the last 2 debates.  His "Front-runner" status gave him front and center placement at the last two debates and he was therefore the target of everyone else.  He teetered a bit in the MSNBC debate, and fumbled in last nights Fox/ Google debate.   Now I am not new to watching debates or campaigns and he can certainly come back from this and regain his status.  But I do think next weeks polls will show a continued strength for Mitt Romney.  In Yesterdays Rasmussen poll Romney had pulled to within 4 points (28-24%), a dramatic upswing form a month earlier (29-18).  Also Raz Reports include LIKELY voters and a large sample size of 1000 polled.  This is a huge correction to the initial Perry euphoria after the Iowa Straw Poll.   (BTW my suggestion to Michelle Bachmans campaign to get out the day after and run for Senate was spot on..if I do say so myself!).

Romney has had 5 years to get ready for this race..he has been steady this year and not panicked by the flavor of the month.  I think most everyone believes Palin is not running..she's gonna try to run the attention clock thru October.  We still don't know the dates of the Iowa Caucus, but at the moment I don't think Bachmann will win it. Iowa could even be won by Ron Paul, Romney or Perry. In fact I think Perry must beat Romney in Iowa to stay in the race, neither must be first but Perry will need this win over Romney.  NH the following week Perry is running 4th in single digits. SC and Nevada are next Romney should win NV again this time around, and take 2nd in SC, (assuming Perry does well in Iowa, if Mitt wins IA the race is over in SC).  The next week is Michigan where Romney will win handily, and then it's Florida and Mitt actually fits the GOP voter better than Perry the Southerner.  Jay Cost did a nice analysis of the Southern states, and Florida is NOT a southern state 70% of the people in Florida are not born there! Morning Jay Cost.

The decisions of who will be the 2012 candidate is being made right now.  The money is still flowing quietly to Romney, pol's are being careful to not alienate Romney..if you watch or listen to Rush and Hannity they are being VERY careful..  When it was Buchanan or McCain they were much more willing to comment positively or negatively in one direction or the other..in fact some believe Rush's tacit support of Buchanan may have cost GHW Bush the election in 1992, as much as Ross Perot did. 

So I might be jumping the gun a little bit here, but since I'm in the prediction business..I'm gonna suggest Romney regains the lead in the polls within 2-3 weeks. and possibly even as soon as next week.


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