Sir Charles agrees with me: See my commentary from February 12 2011 http://libertearacine.blogspot.com/2011/02/why-mitt-will-win-in-2012.html. The only difference since my writing then is Donald Trump is being thrown around as a possible name. Krauthammer gives odds of 5-1 for both Romney and Pawlenty, but otherwise we are on the same page. I would add Pawlenty will do well in Iowa unless Michelle Bachman runs..in which case they could cancel each other out and Romney could place first in Iowa. New Hamp will go for Romney and so will Nevada and Florida. South Carolina (After NH and before Nev), could go to Haley Barbour, or Herman Cain..maybe Michelle Bachman, but in any case Romney should hold at least second place there. So Florida will determine the candidate in all likelihood. Mitt will be the most viable remaining at that time. Ask yourself how well Trump is gonna do in Iowa or New Hampshire, or SC, or Nevada. If after 4 races you have no "First places" how are you going compete. Trump could hold out for Florida like Rudy Guilainni did..but Trump is simply not appealing enough to the Conservatives that will be needed to win a primary/ Caucus.
Here's CK's article: http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-racing-form-2012/2011/04/21/AFT4TxKE_story.html
Update 4/26: Looks like Haley Barbour has removed himself from the race. Huckabee is perhaps interested, (I still think he won't).
Open Blog - Tuesday
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