Still waiting to hear the weather forecast for Iowa on Tuesday Caucus day..but here goes anyway! The chatter this week has been the rise of Ron Paul, and Santorum's endorsements from the hard line Christians. Also the chatter has been what if Romney is suddenly trying to win Iowa? Has Romney's "steady as she goes" campaign actually worked out? After a year of being the leader in the polls until Bachmann made a run up, only to fall back a week later to Perry's surge, followed by his stumbles and the rise of Cain..only to be followed by Gingrich's arc of Triumph..Today barely leading the field is Ron Paul by a 1/2% and his trend is down in Iowa and Nationwide. The questions is will one of these get a new rise? Or is the guy who has been in second place all year get the win with all the marbles beginning in Iowa? Santorum and Huntsman never got a day in the sun..but maybe they will at last..
So here is my prediction for Iowa next Tuesday:
If the weather is Cold and/or snowy Ron Paul will win. if not it's gonna go like this:
Mitt Romney top 3 and I predict he'll win if the weather is mild.
Ron Paul second place possibly quite close maybe only one or 2 points.
Rick Santorum will surprise and amaze with a somewhat distant 3rd
Rick Perry and /or Newt will be right behind Santorum. Could be quite a tight cluster.
Bachmann next and lastly Huntsman.
If this happens Santorum will get a nice spike in the polls, Bachmann quits on Wed or Thursday. Huntsman will need to beat Santorum in NH a week later or he will be gone. Gingrich is already pulling some effort from Iowa and heading to SC realizing that will be his last chance to succeed. If Romney wins as I predict he will win New Hampshire and do very well in SC (even if he doesn't win). Romney wins Florida and then Nevada..and cakewalks thru the rest of the races. The only one who can keep the race interesting is Rick Perry but he'll need to WIN South Carolina, and then win or take 2nd in Florida to keep it interesting.
Drop-outs in this order:
Perry (If 6th or 7th in Iowa he'll drop out, and the money will go to Romney)
Romney of course Wins the whole thing. And defeats Obama with over 300 electoral votes.
Looking at the latest polls Who is rising? Romney, Perry, and Santorum are up.
Falling are Ron Paul is fading and Gingrich is in collapse. Perry, Bachmann, and Huntsman.
"Dear Santa, I have everything I need. I live a happy and fulfilling life. But there is just one present that I would 'LOVE' to have this year and I promise if you grant me my wish, I will never ask for anything every again. Santa, could you please, please, please bring me a third party presidential candidate that has true Honesty, Integrity and Courtesy mixed with above average Intellect. Thank You Santa! If you do this for me Santa you will paint a smile on every human living on this planet. Thank You Santa!!! I will leave you extra cookies this year and I promise my cats won't drink your milk this year ;)" D You might agree with him..but I responded as follows:
Dear D.; Santa asked me to let you know that on numerous occasions he has delivered assorted Third Party candidates and you the American people have squandered that opportunity since the last really good one..Honest Abe....Abe was the third party candidate that was gonna Unite the American people..well a few weeks Later the country went into a full on Civil war that caused the deaths of Millions of Americans. Sure it eventually worked out for the better, but some things will never be the same. Just a few more examples of answering your gift "requests".. Strom Thurmond, George Wallace, (Which of those racists would you have liked to see succeed?), Then there is Ross "the nut" Perot, who caused Bill Clinton to win, and thus cause the need for a second half of the War in Iraq and 5,000 dead Americans, and countless Iraqi's; Another is Ralph Nadar, and Pat Buchanan, both of whom caused the close disputed election of 2000 and has created a modern civil war in American creating deep divisions amoung friends and familes..that is SO FAR non-violent. So Dan if your need for another 3rd Party guy to come in a god forbid WIN!! He, or she would be so divisive from BOTH sides..the the Country would be even more UNGOVERNABLE than it is now. How on "God' Green Earth" can that be GOOD? Santa's helper...... :^). BTW how about chocolate chips this year? Santa's Helper.
Sometimes we think the answer is something else, but it really isn't usually.
Today Herman Cain dropped from the GOP race for 2012, before the first Caucus or Primary was held. I have never thought he was going to win..but I have to admit for a few moments in the past few months I thought I just might be wrong. (Cain didn't lose because of his alleged womanizing..he lost because he had trouble getting beyond his own headline of 9-9-9, added to his lack of a cogent understanding of Libya and the Collective Bargaining issue.) Cains' campaign was sunk from the moment Mark Block was seen smoking in his advertisement). My February prediction of a second place finish for Cain was blown due to the allegations. I will now re-direct my "Cain" prediction to Ron Paul who will finish second rather than third in the delegate race.
Today it's Gingrich out front and Mitt holding in second.but slipping just a little. The question is what happens to the rest of the Cain supporters? In the past several weeks the rise in Newt has been a mirror of the collapse of Cain, Cain's rise was a direct mirror of the Perry collapse 6-8 weeks ago. So prediction time again: I think the Cain supporters are Hell bent to not let it be Mitt that they will split between Perry, Bachmann and maybe a few to Ron Paul.
Now that the press has had fun ripping apart Herman Cain over unsubstantiated allegations the next target is of course Newt..Newt's history will now be retold for all to see. His third wife Calista will need to stand beside him and her plastic hair and appearance will be seen by a much wider audience than has been seen so far. It will not look good for Newt. Gingrich's inability to deflect these charges..because he's already admitted to them will force the TEA Party folks to take a more discerning look at him, and all of his assorted positions, and how the commercials that will be made by the Doms/ Obama campaign. Newt's polling #'s will begin to taper off and by Christmas he'll be tied or slightly behind Romney as he soars into a first place finish in Iowa on Jan 3rd. a week later Romney wins New Hampshire..and South Carolina becomes a must win for Newt or Perry if either can somehow manage to place 3rd in Iowa.
Iowa will be Romney, Paul and Gingrich with Perry a possible 4th. New Hampshire will fall Romney, Paul, Huntsman or Perry. If I'm right SC will be the deciding factor. If Romney wins Iowa handily, he will be able to cakewalk to the nomination. Ann Coulter is right Let's just get behind Mitt and go win this thing!
Tonight's Vegas debate was the most spirited and most personal of any of the previous debates. Herman Cain took the early attacks on his 9-9-9 plan and handled the questions with grace and style. He used a lot of Apples and Oranges to try to differentiate his "Tax" from State sales taxes. That was wise considering the media and his opponents will try to blur the lines. He also defended most everything well. He stumbled a bit on the TARP flip-flop which he acknowledged, and on the negotiating with terrorists I think he handled a bit weakly, but overall a good night on stage. GINGRICH should stay in the race as long as we have debates. Newt's doing a great job of trying to keep the bickering from within, he's smart and funny..and he just needs to keep it going! He's the only one who reminds the group the media wants a fight..don't give it to them! Speaking of fights Perry clearly was more prepared this time around and was ready to go at Mitt with everything he could muster..this was the first debate where Mitt was the punching bag..and he deflected every punch extremely well. He kept his cool and his smile, but didn't give up his ground. He's smarter, and more studied, and more savvy than Perry by a mile. Perry just can't compete in that league and he looked slightly deflated towards the end of the debate. Bachmann worked herself into the discussion as did Santorum..who actually came out looking a bit bullyish, (I know coming from me? Really?). Paul, I was sorry didn't have time to make his TRILLION dollar case..and I think the viewers were denied a chance to have the others try to either pile-on Paul or to express their support of his plan.
Cain and Romney winners; Perry I think can stay around, Gingrich and Paul WON'T go away.. Santorum and Bachmann you may return to your corners of the Country..and hey why not run for US Senate in those 2 states?? Minnesota and Pennsylvania BOTH have races next year!
Some people complain about the primary/ caucus process as favoring a few small states Iowa and NH, at the same time they will complain about the debates beginning so early. The truth is the debates have nearly replaced the primaries. The debates are sort of a national primary, and the national polls and fundraising follows the candidates that do well in those debates. Those performances and the money that follows will effect the ability of the candidates to buy media in the early states.
Herman Cain has wowed the press and TEA Party Conservatives and created a major Buzz just in time for his book tour. Many editorials are openly asking if Cain and the 9-9-9 plan can win..he is being taken seriously at least for the moment. But is he really just a "parking place" ?
Charlie Cook asks: "Cain seems to be functioning as a parking place for conservatives who
have grown disillusioned or who harbor reservations about the previous
flavors of the month. Until he demonstrates strength in some of these
other dimensions (fundraising, campaign organization), it’s a good bet
that Cain is little more than a place for conservatives to window shop
while they decide what to do. If Gertrude Stein were alive, she might
observe that with the Cain campaign, “there is no there there.”
I had framed almost the same commentary in my head and then I read Cook and decided to quote him rather than being accused of plagiarism :^). I think as we look back at the past 4 months we had a rush to Trump for a few days when he was calling out Obama, then Bachmann had her day in the sun..and good polling for a few weeks..until Perry got in and then he had a month in the top spot..thru it all Cain has been gathering strength and followers but not much cash until the last week before the reporting period where he took in about 1.5 Million dollars. But compared to the 14.5 and 17.3 million Romney and Perry camps brought in it's a pittance really. Cain has a lean campaign of about 35 staffers, he will now need to ramp up his staff FAST and he will need to keep bringing about 1 million a week and he'll want to leak that info. to the press to keep the focus on his growing momentum in the GOP race *(Cain's campaign leaked this week 10/28 that he raised 3 Million in Oct.). That much change in a short time is bound to cause problems and mistakes. If Perry has a mediocre performance tonight and Cain looks, good he could seriously become the official un-Romney candidate, if Perry does well then Cain and Perry will battle for that title now until January 3rd, when Iowa will decide if there will even be a race in 2012 for the nomination. (10/28 update Perry had his most combative debate with Mitt and Cain did his Apples and oranges defense, but little has changed and Cain has polled barely in first place for about 8 days, I suspect he has peaked though).
Scenario one: Cain or Perry places first in Iowa on Jan 3rd; Romney wins NH and Nev; and then either Cain or Perry MUST win SC; or it's over. Florida will be the next week.and Romney will do very well, either the TEA Party will take this race and give it to Cain/Perry or it's over on Jan 31st. (Florida).
Scenario two: If Romney wins Iowa because the folks see him as the safe choice, it's all over on Jan 3rd.
I like Cain and wish him success but I think the fact is that Romney has consistently been 20% or higher whether in first or second place..and is clearly winning every debate, he is inevitable as the undecideds have now given up on waiting for "Superman", as Chiristie, Palin, Guilianni and Ryan have declined to run.
Huntsman will be the next to drop out of the race, possible in the next 2 -3 weeks. Secondly, while Herman Cain has pulled to within a half point of Romney in the RCP avg.s he will not rise above Romney by more than 1 point , and probably won't climb above Romney at all *see 10/28 update Cain is up .7%.
Herman Cain this morning was on MTP with David Gregory. Cain handled himself very well and very confidently. Gregory badgered him over the 9-9-9 plan and he held his own..Gregory was intentionally, (I think), trying to mix the State tax with SALES tax! I found this interesting because this is the tactic that will be used by his GOP rivals, and the Dem's in the campaign, should he win the nomination.
Wisconsin we have a 5-5.1% SALES tax..and if Cain was to prevail that number would rise to 14-14.1% as the consumer sees it. Even though the STATE portion will not change..the Fed portion will be 9%. It will be a challenge to sell that in Wisc. or Ill where the Sales tax is already 12% in some areas. Michigan is 6 and would raise to 15%. While what is being ignored is the reduction in the INCOME tax that is already built into the cost of product.
My only other observation of Cain was when asked whether he was a "Neo-Conservative"..I knew he was asking about Iraq/ Afghanistan. He responded correctly that he is a "Conservative" missing the implication Gregory was making to try to tie his Foreign policy to Wolfowitz, Rumsfeld and others. Gregory is clearly trying to under cut Cain..but that is no surprise. Gregory's lefty bias is so blatant..Tim Russert would not be proud. For Cain to fend off Gregory without looking foolish is a success by any measure! NeoConservative comment
I've been watching the 2012 Senate shape up since November of last year. I'm a geek about this stuff I know. I have a dry erase board with all the races color coded Red-Blue and Green, with assessments of assorted races. Ranked by which will switch from Dem ->Rep.
In order for the GOP to take control of the US Senate they only need 3 or 4 seats minimum, (Depending upon the Pres. result), and up to 13 to have a filibuster proof control of the Senate. I read Chris Cilizza, and Larry Sabato, and several assorted people who really dig into these races. And I follow RCP Polls to gather Poll results and trends. A few of their writers Sean Trende and Jay Cost are great analysts. Dick Morris is also entertaining, albeit a little optimistic sometimes. The Dems are defending 23, seats the GOP only 10.
As of right now I see 11 races that are switchable, including the Scott Brown, MA race as the only GOP possible loss. Update 12/29 Brown is polling 6 points behind, but he came from 30+points behind in just a few weeks in the special election last year. (We are a year away and much can change). Also considering Mitt is the likely GOP candidate that will help Brown on the down ballot.
North Dakota This is a shoe-in.
Nebraska Ben Nelson and The Cornhusker Kick-Back are going down. Update 12/29 Nelson is retiring and this seat is now almost certainly a GOP pick-up
Missouri Claire McCaskill is a great Dem. Senator but she is still gonna lose. The Missouri comp.
Virginia No more Macaca..George Allen is taking this seat back that he barely lost. Tim Kaine will make it interesting though.
Montana John Testor just barely won this in 2006, he will have a difficult time holding on in 2012, with new TEA Party momentum.
Wisconsin Herb Kohl's retirement should make this a slight GOP favorite depending on the candidate.
New Mexico Open Seat..should be winnable by Heather Wilson over Dem's Heinrich or Balderas.
Ohio Sherrod Brown will not go away easily, but what I have learned about Josh Mandl should be a good race.
Florida Bill Nelson will be a tough race for the GOP to pick up but still in range.
Michigan Debbie Stabenow will be tough to defeat as well. But if Pete Hoekstra is the Candidate and Mitt Romney is the GOP Nominee..she will be in trouble.
So If the GOP runs the table on the above Dem held seats the pick up is only 10. In order to get to 13 lets look at the rest of the Dem held seats, that are remotely possible:
CA: Feinstein Highly unlikely
CT: Open seat Slim Chance, Linda McMahon is in and so is Chris Shays..With Romney on top possible pick up.
DE: Carper Highly unlikely
HI: Case Highly unlikely, Best chance is if Former Gov. Linda Lingle runs. Update Lingle is running so there is some hope on this one.
MD: Cardin Highly unlikely.
MN: Klobuchar Some Chance. If Michelle Bachmann had jumped into this race the day she won the Iowa Straw Poll, this would've been hers for the taking. A Tim Pawlenty run would also be formidable!
NJ: Menendez No Chance..So far I don't even know if he has a challenger.
NY: Gillibrand No Chance
PA: Casey Some Chance, but if Rick Santorum got in this race, it'd be 50/50.
RI: Whitehouse Highly unlikely.
VT: Sanders Slim Chance. I need to learn a bit more about Tom Salmon.
WA: Cantwell Slim Chance. Wait to see how the GOP Primary turns out to get a gauge.
WV: Manchin Possible. Shelly Caputo Moore is a well known candidate in WV, in a perfect storm this state could fall. But Joe Manchin is the most Conservative Dem on this list, he could even switch parties after the election if he somehow was the 60th vote.
So As I see it maybe 10 pick ups which would be huge!! But it still wouldn't be 13. The class of 2014 might be so intimated that a few party switches could happen, like in 1994. AK, AR, CO, LA, NM, VA, NC Senators could be trembling, and might at least consider voting to repeal Obama-Care if it is still required by then.
Next week Mitt Romney will no doubt lead the field in cash raised. These past 10 days have been rough for Rick Perry. 2 lousy debate performances and just at the end of the first reporting period that Perry is involved in. I expect Romney could out fund raise Perry 2-1. Romney is gathering lot's of support from Obama's Wall Street donors of 2008. While, as of today, Perry is leading in the National Polls on RCP by about 6% over Romney. New polls in the past few days from Ohio, Penn, Iowa and Florida are coming out from PPP Polling are showing Romney ahead of Perry by 4-6%. By next week when the $$$ Race numbers are released I presume Romney will return to his front-runner status. Perry will drop to second and perhaps even third. Cain seems to have absorbed Michele Bachmann's voters. Huntsman and Johnson seem stuck in the basement. Gingrich and Santorum are moving upwards slightly and Ron Paul has 11% of the electorate. I think after the cash reporting Johnson, Gingrich, and perhaps even Bachmann will drop out. I could be wrong for one exceptional reason..Debate performances are essentially free, show up and get a hotel room and your in the debate. Lot's of exposure for very little money.
Update 10/17 Romney took second in the cash raising race. Perry out-raised by a little, but most of those funds were right out of the gate when he jumped in. As he got closer to the filing deadline I suspect his donations had dropped significantly, at the same time Cain was picking up big donations in the last week to ten days.
I have been making predictions on the 2012 campaign since Feb of this year. February Predictions Most of the scenario I put forward has come to pass, just as I predicted. In my original posting I mentioned the possibility that Rick Perry could jump in the race and it could mess up my scenario, I suggested a Perry run was 50/50. As it happened, he did get in the race and launched to the top of the polls. Many Conservatives and TEA Party folks were waiting for the "Great White Hope"..and they believed Perry was it. I have cautiously watched and waited while the Perry campaign, the media rectal exam, and the critics to have their way with him. Perry has handled his new fame pretty well until the last 2 debates. His "Front-runner" status gave him front and center placement at the last two debates and he was therefore the target of everyone else. He teetered a bit in the MSNBC debate, and fumbled in last nights Fox/ Google debate. Now I am not new to watching debates or campaigns and he can certainly come back from this and regain his status. But I do think next weeks polls will show a continued strength for Mitt Romney. In Yesterdays Rasmussen poll Romney had pulled to within 4 points (28-24%), a dramatic upswing form a month earlier (29-18). Also Raz Reports include LIKELY voters and a large sample size of 1000 polled. This is a huge correction to the initial Perry euphoria after the Iowa Straw Poll. (BTW my suggestion to Michelle Bachmans campaign to get out the day after and run for Senate was spot on..if I do say so myself!).
Romney has had 5 years to get ready for this race..he has been steady this year and not panicked by the flavor of the month. I think most everyone believes Palin is not running..she's gonna try to run the attention clock thru October. We still don't know the dates of the Iowa Caucus, but at the moment I don't think Bachmann will win it. Iowa could even be won by Ron Paul, Romney or Perry. In fact I think Perry must beat Romney in Iowa to stay in the race, neither must be first but Perry will need this win over Romney. NH the following week Perry is running 4th in single digits. SC and Nevada are next Romney should win NV again this time around, and take 2nd in SC, (assuming Perry does well in Iowa, if Mitt wins IA the race is over in SC). The next week is Michigan where Romney will win handily, and then it's Florida and Mitt actually fits the GOP voter better than Perry the Southerner. Jay Cost did a nice analysis of the Southern states, and Florida is NOT a southern state 70% of the people in Florida are not born there! Morning Jay Cost.
The decisions of who will be the 2012 candidate is being made right now. The money is still flowing quietly to Romney, pol's are being careful to not alienate Romney..if you watch or listen to Rush and Hannity they are being VERY careful.. When it was Buchanan or McCain they were much more willing to comment positively or negatively in one direction or the other..in fact some believe Rush's tacit support of Buchanan may have cost GHW Bush the election in 1992, as much as Ross Perot did.
So I might be jumping the gun a little bit here, but since I'm in the prediction business..I'm gonna suggest Romney regains the lead in the polls within 2-3 weeks. and possibly even as soon as next week.
7 years ago a group of merchants in Downtown created First Fridays, modeling it after similar events in small communities around the country. It has been a success beyond belief! So why would a group of those merchants want to end it? Because too many people are having fun and .......DRINKING...Yep that is the PROBLEM! According to these Tea-totaling nannies. It's now a new "plan" to "control" it. I and others have been fighting to keep it an open, free, easy going affair for all of the years I have been downtown. Every year, 3 or 4 voices complain about exactly the same thing with no new arguments. Rather than make our meeting an exciting creative planning session for the upcoming year, we instead spend 60% of the meeting discussing the same old business. The fact is the solution to these complainers has been reached by each business exercising individual liberty and controlling the situation at their own doorways. But for 3 people that's not enough..until they can control, manipulate and otherwise Nanny the rest of us and our guests to death, they will not relent. Many previous attendees of these meeting have stopped attending rather than listen to this incessant nagging. I still show up but each year I am finding myself arguing the points alone. It reminds me of when I was married..an issue bubbles up, and I compromise; 6 months later the same issue and I'm expected to compromise again until I'm a hen pecked cowering husband doing whatever I'm told to do, to avoid conflict. Sorry WRONG GUY!! Also I'm right on this and I'm not gonna cave even if I have to be the only one who speaks up. Don't worry it looks like we are safe to have fun for another year!!
Here are the facts the city knows it, the mayor knows it, DRC knows it and most of the downtown shop owners know it's true: The Taverns, Restaurants, and Clubs ( TRC), Pay more taxes, employ more people, provide more wealth and value to our city, than all of the merchants, lawyers, banks etc. combined!! I am hoping more businesses will join our district in the future once the economy turns a bit, but I don't expect it until late 2012 early 2013. West Racine, Uptown, State St. Douglas Ave and even the Mall would like to have what we have on First Friday. Stop complaining!!
I have kept this discussion out of the public for 5 years now.I decided the best way to deal with it is to let the light shine on the problem and let's get back to having fun!!
BTW to my Lefty Neighbors...Look around at the crowds on First Fridays. Mostly white 35-70 years old, middle to upper income folks and homeowners, most do not live in the urban part of the city, but rather from around the city.. Guess what those "Customers" are REPUBLICANS not Dems. Stop throwing cold water on their party! These are the customers you have products in your store to sell to!
Miles Kirstan makes the news again. This time for pouring beer on the head of Rep. Robin Vos. Unfortunately Miles didn't dump this beer the Sunday or Monday before the first round of recalls. Imagine the effect his boorish behavior would've had on those swing voters in the recalls. Mr. Miles is notorious for his bad behavior. His Mommy and Step-dad are Govt. Union UW Parkside employees who love urging Miles to do the dirty work for those "Professors" who are too good for such behavior. Even Root River Siren has been willing to throw Miles under the bus. Here's another example of Washington State Longshoreman demonstrating the thuggish behavior the Unionista's are notorious for. Jimmy Hoffa Sr. and Jr. Richard Trumpka, CJ Terrell, Seg-Way boy, and of course Racine's own version of Bill Ayers..Miles Kirstan. Longshoreman Thugs.CJ Terrell and Miles Kristan showing how tolerant they are...
Yesterday the GOP won a seat in New York 9 for the first time in over 80 years. This seat was held by Anthony Weiner..the Pit Bull/ Weiner dog of the Democratic Congress for the past 6-10 years. This same seat previously held by Chukie Schumer! This district is very Jewish, Very Democratic 3-1 over GOP registrants, and the GOP Turner won the race by 8 points 54-46. Amazing!! This district will be drawn out of existence in Jan 2013, but It's a bell weather of what the Dems and the Jewish voters are thinking across the country. Jewish voters make up only about 3% of the electorate and mostly are in safe Dem States, NJ, NY MI with a sizable presence in Florida which is "swingy". If Obama is losing FLA and Michigan is in play he is in serious trouble!! Reports of California discontent was reported in polls today as well. Obama is facing a LANDSLIDE in 2012..and I think he knows it. That's why he is spending all of his precious moments living the high life at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.
Virginia is coming home. The Dems had been thrilled from 2006-2008..as they felt they had finally grabbed back a southern state from the "right". Former GOP Sec of the Navy, James Webb switched parties and ran against George Allen and in a very tight race won the Senate Seat, taking control of the US Senate,.and knocking Sen. George Allen out of contention for the 2008 Presidential sweepstakes, . The demographics in northern VA have been drifting to the "left" as more DC suburbanites fill in those northern areas. But the REST of the Old Dominion, hasn't changed..and the trend is swinging back the "right" way. Yesterdays primaries in VA show the GOP candidates have a very strong chance of retaking the State Senate. They already re-captured the Gov's office in 2009, (the beginning of the anti-Obama shift, and the first round of TEA Party successes). The GOP controls the House of Delegates and are behind in the Senate 22-18. The GOP has 16 uncontested races, and the Dems face a challenger in 16 of their races. A switch of 3 seats gives the GOP control at 21.
Former Sen and Gov. George Allen is in a 2012 race against Dem Rock star and also former Gov. Tim Kaine, that race is close so far. but surely the 2011 possible change could make things look bad for Kaine and Obama in 2012 who won the usually "red" state in 2008. Obama;s amp to electoral victory without those usually "Red" states like VA, OH, FL,IN, CO and Nevada which he won in 2008 will cost him re-election. In 2008 he also managed to hang onto IA, NM and NH which had flipped back and forth in 2000 and 04. George Allen should be able to re-take his Senate seat, in 2012. VA will be much like WI and OH and even MI which have changed over their state govt's. to the GOP and the TEA Party is strong in those areas..Obama is in serious trouble if he can't hang on to those States.
Keep your eye on VA this November as a precursor of what Nov 2012 will look like.
Interesting article that came out 3 days ago: Obama in trouble in Virginia!
Even though Rick Perry didn't show up for the debate or the Straw Poll he gets a ticket to ride. He comes in as the second place in the latest polls, even before he gets in. Romney is still the front-runner, and the third ticket goes to....Michelle Bachmann.
Michelle should get out RIGHT NOW and go run for Senator of Minnesota..because she has hit her zenith in the Presidential sweepstakes. I do think a woman can win the Presidency but not her, not yet. She handled herself with grace and class on the Sunday shows after the Straw Poll.
I have long predicted Mitt Romney would be the winner of the Primary races...but even back in February I had stated it depended upon Perry's decision. So now that he's in this race..What do I think?? Well I still think it's too early to tell. I want to see how he does in a few TV interviews, and the next debate is in September..Also the press has been doing some digging and I've heard a few stories that could be trouble..but I'm waiting to see which are substantiated and which are just lies and rumors. Team Obama has no serious resume to run on..so they will spend 3/4 of a Billion dollars to trash, dig-up, smear and tear apart the GOP candidate. So it's in our best interest to thoroughly vet Gov. Perry. He's been in public office for 23 years..so he has a history of votes, and projects, and people he was connected with.
Here's how I see it at this point from now until January if Bachmann stays in the race: Bachmann and Perry will duke it out for the TEA Party and Ron Paul will holding on to his slice of the TP at the same time..and Ron Paul isn't gonna fold his tent. Thus in a sort of 3 way race for half of the GOP voters, a back and forth action will occur with one of them winning Iowa Caucus...But Romney will have the other half of the voters of the GOP..in the mean time he can stay out of the fracas as they duke it out. He wins NH, NV, and MI...Bachmann and Perry split Iowa and SC..and the showdown is in Florida where Perry breaks out over Bachmann in either 1st or 2nd place, and Romney takes the opposite, Bachmann 3rd and she'll drop out.. Then it's a shoot out with Mitt Romney who by then will have 3 wins and 2 seconds going into Super Tuesday...I think Romney wins most of them and the race is over..with Ron Paul grabbing 10% in any of the rest of the races.
I can't help but add...If Michelle leaves right away Cain will fill her shoes in the above scenario..except that he won't beat Perry.. the smart money is still on Romney..because even though the TEA Party/ conservative have a lot of power this primary will engage most of the GOP voters..and half of the votes are in BLUE States...where Romney is neither a "Crazed" Bachmann or another "Texas Cowboy" as in Bush....rather Perry! The folks in the middle are not afraid of Romney and will feel very comfortable putting him in the Oval Office. He will drag along with him very long coat-tails in the Senate and Congress and down ballot offices. Perry can win..but Romney will give us a landslide! PA, CT,WI, MI, NJ, NM, NH, IO, WA, and maybe even Oregon and New York State!
First thing to remember is the previous 5 Straw Polls record of winners is not very good. It predicted twice (and tied once) the winner of the Iowa Caucus and only twice the winner of the Republican Nominee. (Bob Dole was a tie in 1995, W was correctly selected in 1999), and only ONCE has it selected the winner of the Presidency. President Pat Robinson never made it very far:^). Last time around approx 15,000 voters participated, and you have to PAY to vote, so $$$ can effect your turnout and the vote. (BTW John McCain took took 10th place last cycle!)
With that said it's still a fun excersize to look at the race, so here's my predictions:
With 2 Minnesotans in the race the Bachmann vs. T. Paw is the most intriguing. T.Paw has practically moved to Iowa for the past 4 months..but I still think he will do 4th place at best. If he makes the top 3 or somehow beats Bachmann he'll be reinvigorated, if he takes 4th or worse I think he drops out soon.
Michelle Bachmann I predict will win closely, or second place. It will be a real boost to her and will mobilize some of the TEA Party support from the Herman Cain campaign and whatever T.Paw's supporters might remain. *
Herman Cain should come in 4th or 5th probably very close to T.Paws %'s. He'll be able to stay in with those numbers..If he does worse than 5th he might decide it's not his year, but I think he'll soldier on. He's a great guy to have in the race!
Ron Paul should take 2nd place..but could pull out a first place..every Straw Poll he gets into his peeps show up and vote, and he usually wins. the RPer's are very dedicated and I think RP stays in the race thru the end, even if he's an also ran. He'll keep making his case which will allow Romney or Perry look more moderate to the rest of the electorate.
Mitt Romney doesn't have to place in the top 5 to be considered a win. (He won last time with 32% of the vote, but he also wrote out some BIG checks to get his people to the event, Interestingly Mike Huckabee supporters used Mitt's money, and his buses, to get to the Ames event and then voted for the Huckster who placed 2nd on Mitt's $$$), Romney decided not to pay to play this time..but I still think he will come in 3rd, anything better than 3rd will scare away a lot of the lesser candidates, who might decide to jump out of the race.
So my prediction is:
Michelle Bachmann 1st
Ron Paul 2nd
Mitt Romney 3rd
Tim Pawlenty 4th
Herman Cain 5th
Santorum, Gingrich and Huntsman could find themselves lower than Perry and Palin who might be write-in candidates. Should either Perry or Palin place in the top 5 using write in ballots only...it'll be a huge factor to the Bachmann, Cain and Pawlenty campaigns. Romney and Paul will be uneffected at this point.
I think Huntsman and T.Paw will drop out in the next few weeks, unless they out perform today. I still think Palin will not run. If somehow Herman Cain places last he will probably drop out..but i don't think he'll be last.
*Now that Rick Perry is getting in and is trying to Big foot the Ames Poll by announcing today...If I was Michelle Bachmann, and I won the Straw Poll as I have suggested..she should immediately, this week, announce that she is throwing her support behind Perry , Romney, or the TEA Party..and declaring that she will be better running against Amy Klobuchar for the US Senate seat in Minnesota. Her credentials will make her the instant front-runner in that primary, and will give Klobuchar a serious run, in an otherwise safe seat for her. If Bachmann's win comes today..this will be her peak in the campaign..she can either capture that energy and win in a bottle, or become more irrelevant every day from now on.
Ames, Iowa; Last nights debate was entertaining for geeks like me and also to casual viewers who caught highlights on other media. Each candidate appeared prepared for a wide range of questions and most answered readily without notes.
Tim Pawlenty Loser, Sorry T Paw..you really needed his one. The Fox team wanted drama and you were the target, so they made u go after Bachmann and Romney to give u a chance to take out either one of them. While you tried to keep it nice..they both came out on top of the exchanges. You looked nervous and frustrated, like you knew you were swinging and missing. It's time to consider a run for US Senate against Amy Klobuchar...Good Luck! (See comments below under Michelle Bachmann).
Rick Santorum, Loser (sort of). While I want to like both Tim and Rick they needed to raise their profile and Rick was combative..his side position was a disadvantage to him and while his discussions with Ron Paul were worthy of credit..but he's just not gonna break thru.. I suggest Rick you should also go back and run for Senate in PA..The GOP will probably win this time and you will get your seat back from Casey.
Ron Paul, Winner. Paul remained calm during the discussions and firm to his very Libertarian non interventionists stances. He loses there amoung the right..and Rick Santorum gave him a well deserved task taking on the Iranian issue and won the crowd. But again RP held his own and looked competent. Still has ZERO chance to win the Nomination and even less chance of the General..but I think he'll be the last man standing besides the winner. I will confess the stuff he said 3 years ago on the economy is coming true because of the irresponsibility of Prez. O's spending.
John Huntsman, Loser. His first kick at the cat..and Huntsman looked timid and very nervous..but his policies and positions on Social issues and his reason for serving under Obama were not well received, and I think his campaign ends soon. I think he could be a solid cabinet member in a Romney or Perry administration though.
Michelle Bachmann, Winner. She once again came out looking good and swinging for the bleachers, and she was great in her exchanges with T Paw. She kept her cool. When she rec'd the absurd question about submitting to her husband..she let the crowd boo the question took a deep breath and then handled the question deftly. It was even better than her response to Chris Wallace's question a few weeks ago about whether she was a "Flake". Michelle I have an idea for you. You will probably win the Straw poll tomorrow, as Rick Perry gets in the race; You should refocus your campaign as a Senator against Amy Klobuchar..your exiting at the top of your game would be an ideal launching point for the Senate. Simply use the reason that your views will well represented by Romney or Perry and you can best serve the people of Minnesota as the next Senator! You have the money, and the name recognition now to carry this off!
Newt Gingrich, Winner. Newt came out swinging at the MEDIA!! Nicely done considering he was paid by Fox News for the past 8-10 years. He also brought up some great points about Dodd Frank and other things that are making a mess of the country. He held his own..but he still can't win the race.
Herman Cain, Winner. HC showed his wit and charm and his crowd pleasing abilities. His difference between the rest of the crowd as a businessman. He showed the class of someone who is learning as he goes, and that jumping into decision or wars etc. without all the facts is dangerous. Nice job Herman! I don't think it gets you over the hump like your first surprise performance..but I'm watching.
Mitt Romney, Winner..Once again Mitt was calm, cool and collected, with a genuine competence that is tough to miss by the average observer. The Hard right TEA Party folks still want to hate him..but since they are so divided amoung Bachmann, T. Paw, Paul and Cain and waiting on Perry. Romney is just holding his positions for now and letting the rest duke it out. He handled the RomneyCare issue well again. and made it clear he'll kill it when he has the chance.
Overall I'd call the Debate as follows:
Paul or Cain 4th.
This debate will have no serious effect on the Straw poll, T. Paw wasn't gonna do very well anyway.
Loser: Sarah Palin for her classless visit of her Bus trip to Ames. Sarah either get in the race or get the hell out of the way!! Your squandering your King Making status.
Loser: Rick perry for trying to stomp on the Ames Straw Poll by announcing the same day. Not a huge faux pas but still a bit tacky.
Tomorrow's Blog will be my predictions for the Straw Poll results.
In Kenosha the Wirch campaign is focusing on Pro-Life and Pro-Choice issues?? Why would they do that? They are avoiding issues and just focusing on Jonathan Steitz' "Corporate Lawyer" status. This is interesting considering those are issues you run to when your trying to mobilize your BASE! With 6 days left Wirch's folks can't even get the Base mobilized? After yesterdays failure to capture the Flag of 3 Seats in the State Senate..and the Meltdown from Zelinski and Tate..it could be they see this seat slipping away. Polling from Monday (Before the vote), shows this race is Tightening fast.. Low single digits!!! Last week it was 10 points..Steitz is closing fast and thousands of new dollars cascaded into the campaign office since last night! JS has the momentum..and Wirch's folks are worried. With only 2 races left..it'll be a rocking week!
Since 2004 Rasmussen Reports has been tracking Party affiliation. Most of the past 50 years the Dem's have had the lead in affiliation across the country, since this tracking began it has been consistently D over R. Occasionally the R's get close but then the D's pull away.In 2008 and 2009 the D's were around 40% and the R's were around 32% behind by as much 8.5% at on point. From Jan 2004 thru Nov 2010 the D's were ahead every single month..but something happened in November 2010. The success of the TEA Party and it's connection with the Republican's was seen as good place for 36% of the people to self identify with! In December it moved to 37% and was a 3.3% advantage over the D's. All in the 7 months since the first time the R's overtook the D's 6 months the R's have held that lead. As of May 35.6% over 34%. This trend seems to be gaining a foothold and perhaps the R's have finally gotten back to their Conservative roots and the electorate is ready to see those policies applied to control spending and the Dems have been shown for their Big govt. ideology.
Perhaps it's ironic, that the GAB put the Dem's and Repub's races in 2 different weeks. The Dem's yesterday FAILED to achieve the 3 seats neede to take back the Senate, and many of the Dem/ Union operators have begun to leave the state. I assume they'll be taking their checkbooks with them. That is BAD NEWS for Wirch and Holperin. The energy is out of the sails of Unionista's and the original argument of recalling State Senators who failed to show up for work returns to the fore-front. If Stietz and Simac can get that message out..and the GOP and TEA PArty voters GOTV they will take back 2 seats and the entire argument will have been for naught! Help if you can, ($$ or effort). If "Our" side keeps the energy high we can win them both! A week or 2 ago I was told the Stietz race was listed as #8 of 8..if all the races had been held the same week this race would've been written off. Now it can be the lynchpin in holding the Conservative majority! What reason do the Dem/ unionista's have to fight this race anymore?
Afterthought. The newly drawn districts for State Senate will make the 2 seats the GOP lost much easier to take back in a rematch.
I wanted to get my thoughts out before others have a chance to influence my perception: As I was watching late last night the debate i was impressed that each candidate was very well prepared, very confident, and answered the questions directly, and quickly. I watch most debates and can usually form an opinion about a winner or loser. I was having a hard time finding much to criticize. in the performances.
Last nights debate was an interesting set up. (except for the stupid deep dish pizza questions)..I rather liked the format. I missed the first few minutes..but it seemed the questions came quickly and from all over the audiences and media personalities. It also seemed the candidates didn't always know when questions were coming at them...and yet they answered directly, quickly and ably. (Just picture Prez Obama having to come up with answers in that rapid fire type situation..he'd be so busy hemming and hawing and um er um er). I have to say I think each of them did extremely well and I could see any of them as the nominee.
Who won?? Romney won; easily. Romney won by not losing, at this point he's put in front by nearly 20 points over any other declared candidate, he had few great lines, my favorite dealt with Prez. Obama never called him about RomneyCare where he would've told him what worked, and what did not. . Most surprising? Michelle Bachmann, (also best dressed!!) Classy, unwavering, unapologetic. Gingrich needed a great performance to save his dead campaign..and I think he handled himself with confidence..but I still think he's toast. T. Paw really needed to have a great night to break out of the "also ran" pack and while he was competent..he was not stellar, and he biffed the chance to go at Romney..thus granting Romney the "Win", Pawlenty is trying to be the Right winger and he is finding himself dividing the "right" amoung himself, Bachmann, Paul, Palin and even Cain. Santorum was solid, and non-apologetic in his social stances but I still don't see how he can break through. This brings us to Herman Cain...confident, competent and even exciting..but not enough to break over the top. (See the notes above re: T.Paw). Once we know Palin is out for sure, (I am sure), and we figure out if Rick Perry is in or not (50/50)..it'll continue to be Romney in the lead..and as long as he has no gaffes or obvious flip-flops. He will remain the prohibitive front runner. He might win the Ames Straw poll and not even have to attend!
Today's Wash Post/ ABC poll showed for the first time a declared GOP candidate leading Pres Obama 49-46%...Not a land slide or even a majority..but on top. The candidate is Romney. The other major players were listed as well and they all lost to Obama by 11% or more. There is some who say the field is set, and others who say more could jump in. I tend to agree with the former.. I still doubt Palin is running...(She is toying with the media..which is hysterical to watch, but I still think she doesn't run). Bachmann I think will decide to run for Senator of Minnesota..with all the $$$ she has raised pretending to be considering a run for Prez. I think she knows she can't win the nomination and the polls for the next 3 weeks will show her in the low single digits. Guiliani likes to be romanced..but also knows his window has passed. He can't compete in Iowa..and Romney won't lose NH. Now below I have an analysis I sent to a friend..and it does discuss the 3 above as possibles because the WP/ABC poll has them listed and with some support..especially Palin and Gulianni. The most important thing about this poll is if you remove those 2 from the survey Romney is almost 20 points out in front..and that's with only 25% of the polls support!RCP Polls WP/ ABC is the top line.
The reason for this conversation was to discuss the "Next in line" argument about the GOP nominee. Romney (or Palin) would be the next in line. The other is to point out that the GOP Nominee Always wins either Iowa or New Hampshire. More details below:
THE GOP BTW has won the Presidency 63% of the time since 1860-2008; 61% since 1968-2008; and 61% of the time since 1980-2008. In almost every year the GOP ran the "Next guy in line". It works almost every time. The Dems have suceeded only 37-39% of the time and the SELDOM run the next guy in line. FDR was one exception that won..Stevenson, Humphrey; McGovern; Mondale; Gore and Hillary Clinton would all be examples of the "Next" who lost. The Dems do better with the fresh face.
Finally I disagree that Romney would rule as a RINO..He would rule to the right of Reagan. Especially if given a TEA Party supported House and Senate. Romney is known across the country by 75-80% of the electorate...he has no dark secrets, is moderately tempered..and looks and acts like a leader. Plus he's all the qualities the Obama is not. Besides just accept it...he's gonna win the primary gambit. Today's Wash Post/ ABC poll shows Romney out front 21% with Palin at 17, and Giuliani at 8%; Paul and Gingrich tied with 6% and Cain at 4%; T. Paw was 2 or 3%. If you take the survey with out Palin, Romney is 25% leading Giuliani with 9% I don't think either of them is going to get in..leaving you at Paul and Gingrich.at *% !!! Johnson didn't even register 1% and Santorum and Bachmann each had 1%. It's just not even close! ow one or 2 of these folks is gonna rise to the second tier pretty soon. and then it'll be at least interesting. But if Palin and Bachmann and Perry, and even Paul Ryan's names are still bandied about it'll hurt all of the folks at the bottom and Romneys' spread will just keep widening, and the $$$ will go his way.
Iowa Caucus : if Michelle Bachmann runs she might win it..and then nothing else..Romney will take second..Win NH and then wipe the floor the rest of the way. Same scenario is true with Palin, instead of Bachmann.except she could make it a 2 person race..but ultimately Romney wins..because the grown-ups will out perform the TEA Party in last dozen races. Same scenario plays out with T. Paw or Herman Cain in Iowa ..T. Paw would be sort of a "Fav. Son"..but his margin wouldn't be as good as Palin or Bachmann, Cain is the upset guy if he really can get into the hearts of the Christian Conservatives in Western Iowa...More likely they split the vote if they're both still in the hunt and Romney grabs first or Second..goes to NH and blows out the other guy and then SC and Nevada are his wins the following week. Only one or 2 will have money to compete in Florida at this point and Romney will outspend at 5or 10-one and wrap it up in FL.
BTW since the Iowa Caucus and NH Primary era (1972-2008). No Republican has won both..and only one Republican has won Iowa and the Presidency George W. Bush ()Who lost the NH Primary the next week to John McCain. The GOP Nominee has always one at least one of these 2 races since 1972. The same is true on the Dem side. Thus since Romney is almost certain to win NH thus he's 50/50 for the nomination. And if Palin or Bachmann doesn't run ,,he'll very likely win Iowa as well.
The next metric will be to see how Romney does on the Sunday talk shows. He's usually pretty good, but I know he'll start to get some tougher questions. I'm counting on Chris Wallace to dig into him on Global Warming and Ethanol. This is how I see 2012 today...I'll keep watching and reading and learning..And I'll update you in a month or so. Right now it looks like we can win..and build on our House majority..and the Senate!
Anthony Weiner seems to be even too much for the Wisconsin Dem's. He has zipped up his junk and decided to stay in New York. I think we can safely say he won't be injecting himself into the New York City mayors race now. The only question is how long can he hold onto his current...umm...situation in Congress. You can bet that by now a Mark Foley, Christopher Lee or other Republican Congressman would be gone already. C'mon Nancy Pelosi..how about throwing this lying Twitterer to the curb! I understand his New York City district is actually competitive imagine a chance for the Republicans to re-capture a NY State Congressional seat after the loss of NY26 last week. JS Online has it here
I'm still looking for a good interactive map for the 2012 election cycle. Here is pretty good one from Daily.Kos Electoral Map which offers a look at Pres, Senate, House and Gov races from 2000-2008. I suspect they will soon offer a 2010 & 12 update. In reviewing this map site and many of the individual states from 2000-2012, and we look back at the past 12 years we still are a 50/50 country. With this in mind the 2000 and 2004 elections were precariously close wins for Bush over Gore and Kerry. 2008 was a solid win for Obama. So I decided to look at the states McCain lost in 2008 that the 2012 candidate needs to reach 270 electoral votes, (McCain won 173 EV's).
First consider the Redistricting factor in McCain states..he picks up 7, thus we begin with 180 EV's. The Republican candidate needs to pick-up 90 votes. I have tried to put these in order of possibilities for the R's to pick-up, but I have also weighted them by EV's needed to win:
Ohio 18 EV's: No Republican has won the Presidency without Ohio. Obama 51/47 Kasich reversed that in the Gov. race in 2010 and Rob Portman did even better. (The very liberal Sherrod Brown is defending his US Senate seat, and there is a few good competitors).
North Carolina 15EV's: NC has been a solid Republican state for many years, and should likely revert to the R column, McCain lost the state by less than 1% about 14,000 votes out of 4 million.
Indiana 11 EV's: IN is also a solid Rep. state and should swing back to the R column especially with Mike Pence running for Gov. and Dick Lugar running for US Senate again. Obama won this state by less than 1%
New Mexico, New Hampshire, and Iowa 13 EV's combined: These were the 3 states in 2000 & 2004 that switched red to blue or visa-versa. Each state was close both times, Obama swept them in '08 but will be winnable by either side in 2012.
Virginia 13 EV's: Went for Obama in 2008 53-46%, (Bush won 00-04 by the reverse %ages), but Virginia has been a reliable R state for decades. While some of the media have thought they had finally dragged this state over the Red-blue line, but 2009 Gov. race, showed they trend had ended. So all things equal Virginia should fall in the R's column in 2012.
If the Republican Nominee can win all of the above that is 270; Obama loses. We don't even need Florida!
The "Bush" states is the next tier of possible States that are very winnable for the Republicans:
Colorado 9EV's: Bush won narrowly in 2000; & handily in 2004; which was reversed in 2008 by Obama.
Very swingy purple state with good shot for the Republican in 2012..The Dem's convention certainly helped build support for them in 2008.
Florida 29EV's: The Famous Florida of 2000, and the Bush decisive win in 2004, followed by the close race in 2008 where Obama won 51-48%, FL has had some very close elections since then Ric Scott won as Gov.; Marco Rubio the Tea Party darling who will be on a short list option for anyone as the VP candidate, will make this state very winnable for the R's.
Nevada 6EV's: NV was another "Bush" State that Obama picked up..and it was a split decision in 2010 on the Gov/ US Senate races. With the famous Sharon Angel TP fiasco. There was certainly some slippery stuff in Las Vegas relating to vote fraud..but "What happens in Vegas....." This time Harry Reid won't be on the ticket, and the US Senate race Heller vs. Berkeley should make the race very competitive.
The "Gore-Kerry" States that are in play:
Wisconsin EV's 10: Wisconsin is often called "The next Red state"...Wisconsin is the most talked about, watched and focused upon state in the nation since Nov. 2010. With our tremendous change in Govt. Walker, both State houses, Reince Priebus; Ron Johnson; Sean Duffy, Reid Ribble; and of course the most recognized US Congressman is Paul Ryan on the national stage. (Not to mention Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers), but I digress. Wisconsin is so enmeshed in the recall's; recounts; and revamping of our state Govt. we shall certainly remain the Knifes Edge all the way thru November 2012. The TEA Party is very powerful, and effective in this State as we demonstrated in a recent State Supreme Court election. While the Unions are showing their teeth as wild animals trapped in a corner..their ruling over Wisconsin seems to be coming to an end. Any Republican nominee will be foolish not to consider Paul Ryan for the Veep slot. If Ryan is on the ticket Wisconsin goes Red for sure.
Minnesota 10EV's: Minnesota is another very close state..that many think is a solid Dem state. but MN has had several close races in the past few years Bush came close both times, and Gov Dayton barely won, Al Franken had to cheat to win, and a few years back Norm Coleman beat Mark Dayton narrowly for Senate. It is my hope that Michele Bachmann gets in this race against Amy Klobuchar for US Senate and that could help make MN a very competitive race as well. Tim Pawlenty could also be the nominee, or a strong candidate for Veep as well, but I don't know if he adds as much to the ticket as Ryan or Rubio would.
Michigan 16 EV's: Here is the state we might consider out of reach for the Republicans, but MI has also swung dramatically in the "Red" direction since 2010, the R's control both houses of the legislature and now has a Rep Gov. again. They have a US Senate race in 2012 and Debbie Stabenow is being challenged by Pete Hoekstra, John Engler; and a few others with statewide name recognition. Add to that the very real possibility that Mitt Romney could be the nominee.. Michigan becomes a very strong likelihood for the "R's". Pennsylvania 20EV's: I originally thought Pennsylvania would be needed to win, but I don't think it is. Bush lost it both times; We'd love to have it in our column, and it has been trending in 2010 in our direction. I would really like to see Rick Santorum go grab his Senate seat back from Bob Casey. Pat Toomey won last November, and the Rep's won the Gov job as well.
It could also be a sweep either way. It could be Reagan vs. Carter 1980, or Clinton vs. Dole in 1996. Or a Reagan-Mondale 1984.. with Obama riding to a sweep..I just don't see it likely. I think the most likely scenario is Reagan Carter 1980 and I think Obama will lose almost every state I mentioned above.
Great news for Wisconsin! Look at the amazing difference a Business friendly gov. and State Congress has made in just 6 months for our State! Louisiana jumped 13. No other state had a more dramatic change than Wisconsin. Memo to Mayor Dickert, Council Pres. Helding and the rest of City Council...lets follow some Walker's lead and make Racine a city that is more business/ jobs friendly and we can help Wisconsin jump a few more points next year! The path is paved we need only to follow it! Best/ worst states for business 2011
The Noble Peace Prize winning current "Cowboy" President has succeeded in capturing and killing Usama Bin Laden..and for that we can all be grateful.
I think it is important to change the characters though just a bit. (Suppose the Prez was Bush; the attack was made on sovereign territory without the permission of the host country; the assault made attacking and killing an unarmed man in his bedroom. Would the press have treated the previous "Cowboy President" the same way? Would the press have rolled over an accepted the dumping of the body in the Arab sea within a few hours, but assuring the people of 99.9% accuracy they had killed the right guy. (When we bombed and killed Al Zarqawi in Iraq we didn't dump and bury the body within 24 hours, we made a verification of 100% accuracy that it was the right guy.) ABC news report . Release the videos ASAP Mr. Prez. Make no mistake I support what was done by our Special Forces under the guidance of Prez. Obama..it just that it goes against everything we have heard from the left for 10 years. From water-boarding to acting unilateral actions and invasion of foriegn lands without congressional approval. Which is it?
Does anyone know the address in Oslo, Norway to return the Peace Prize?
UPDATE: Now the President has decided NOT to release the Pictures of Bin Laden. Is trying to create another birth certificate Rope-a-dope? C'mon Mr Pres. your so transparent we can see the BS inside of you!
Sir Charles agrees with me: See my commentary from February 12 2011 http://libertearacine.blogspot.com/2011/02/why-mitt-will-win-in-2012.html. The only difference since my writing then is Donald Trump is being thrown around as a possible name. Krauthammer gives odds of 5-1 for both Romney and Pawlenty, but otherwise we are on the same page. I would add Pawlenty will do well in Iowa unless Michelle Bachman runs..in which case they could cancel each other out and Romney could place first in Iowa. New Hamp will go for Romney and so will Nevada and Florida. South Carolina (After NH and before Nev), could go to Haley Barbour, or Herman Cain..maybe Michelle Bachman, but in any case Romney should hold at least second place there. So Florida will determine the candidate in all likelihood. Mitt will be the most viable remaining at that time. Ask yourself how well Trump is gonna do in Iowa or New Hampshire, or SC, or Nevada. If after 4 races you have no "First places" how are you going compete. Trump could hold out for Florida like Rudy Guilainni did..but Trump is simply not appealing enough to the Conservatives that will be needed to win a primary/ Caucus.
Yesterday Mayor Dickert was sworn in for his second term and a chance to hone his vision for 4 years. Mayor John has been a well known personality in Racine his entire adult life, and his family name is well know for over a century. Hizhonor the Mayor and I have had been on opposite sides of several issues since his swearing in after the vanquished Mayor Becker left the scene. Mayor John also came into office just as the TEA Party movement was building steam..and drawing more folks into the understanding that Govt. is too big and enough is enough. The new mayor to his credit did attempt to get some spending under control and avoid a large tax increase in his first 2 budgets. I have criticized that he still spent 2 million per year from the reserve fund, and he still increased taxes in both years. It was for those reasons that I and others tried to find a candidate to run against the mayor and every possible Alder-person who was afraid to get spending under control. Remember during this time the City rec'd a bit of "stimulus Money", and put off the need for stronger cuts in those first 2 budgets. I spoke before the council and warned of the coming storm when those funds ran out. I asked the Mayor and the Council to not renew any Union Contracts until after Walkers was sworn in and look at the new "deal" that would be available to us the tax-payers after the Spring elections would be held. For instance today Ald. Fair, Becker, and Morganroth are bound by a bad deal signed a month ago..for their entire 2 year term. It would've been prudent to wait until now to make those votes..and we could even postpone them a few more weeks when the Judge Sumi case is settled. The savings potential for the tax-payers and the ability to save jobs, and not raise taxes might have been missed. It is also reported today that our City's unemployment rate has dropped from a year ago, (We may need to explore if our workforce has grown or not). I did want to salute Mayor John for volunteer effort to clean up the Root River Parkway...and it seems he has finally moved away from the KRM Train idea. I also admire his idea for a great city in his "Ten Year Plan"..despite it's lack of clarity.
Now i have been advised by some friends to watch for the John Dickert 2.0 which was launched yesterday at the swearing in. We are to see a more diligent cost-cutter and more understanding that even the "left" tilting City of Racine is looking for more responsible govt. spending as the new rule. I have printed my own copy of the 2011 Budget, and hope to work with the Mayor and the new Council to make Racine a better, lower taxed, more efficient city for all of us. So Mayor John you have 4 more years, let's make your time well spent. Teh TEA Party is not your enemy..we are looking to see Racine the City folow the direction of the County and all of the surrounding communities. We can either leave Racine a high taxed place or make it lower taxed "Island"...Which will bring more businesses, and middle and upper income residents? I think we all know the answer..let's build a place they will want to call home. In case you weren't listening the Tax increase Referendum went down 60%, the people are not in favor of higher taxes..keep that in mind.
Disclaimer: I placed a bet, (which I almost never do), the bet was a nickel and a 300 page blog of positive commentary of Mayor Dickert. I lost! (Marcus needed at least 40%). So the above is a honest assessment of the first partial term of Mayor Dickert, to fulfill my obligation. But I wanted to be sincere.
As soon as I got through the Union Anti-Walker protesters and found an open spot to watch the rally, I kept hearing someone yelling “F… You” repeatedly. I looked to my left and saw some big dude in his late 40’s screaming at this high school kid that was there to support the Tea Party! Obviously I went over and shut the IDIOT up, and we quickly came to the agreement that he’d be better off protesting somewhere else! (God my blood’s boiling again just writing this!) About 20 min later one of “Chicago’s Finest” (off duty) started going off on some lady to my right for taking his picture! So I just couldn’t help myself… I decided to start taking his picture to see if he wanted to try that shit with me! He turned to me and started saying Sara Palin’s a “WHORE” repeatedly. I couldn’t believe it, there were families right behind me with kids as young as 6-7! Again… I had to have the same talk with him as I did with the last IDIOT! WE came to the conclusion that it’d be in his best interest if he went somewhere else too!
It’s obvious they were there to pick a fight with someone, at least the COP was… but I guess he didn’t like who called hi bluff! What kind of people do that? They stoop so low to do all of this right next to a bunch of kids, HELL… one of em was SCREAMING at a kid!
The thing that really got me was this… Just after the rally was breaking up, this lady walks by with her two kids who were about 4 and 6 walked past me. The FOUR year old boy says… mommy… does everyone HATE Mr. Walker??? She said… No honey… he has some supporters. At first I was impressed at how much empathy was in her voice as she said it, but then a bit disturbed that she would be exposing them to all of this at such a young age.
C’Mon people… I just gave the last HALF of my LIFE defending our country so that “EVERYONE” here has the right to protest without the threat of VOILENCE, don’t make me spend the NEXT half defending US from OURSELVES!
WAY TO GOOOOO... JACK ASS!!! I'm sure mom's proud!
Moments ago the Walker Bill/ Law was published...bypassing the Secretary of State's office entirely. The Sec of State and the State Treasurers offices are very likely to be eliminated sometime in the near future. These ceremonial offices are growing ever more useless, as we have just demonstrated. We shall see how quickly a Judge tries to block it...perhaps tonight, or Monday..or maybe they have run out of steam?
I have watched and listened to the Mayoral forums for the past several week. In each of these events the topic of NSP and other "real estate" related issues have come up repeatedly. For instance the Walker property, the West Racine development. and the stubborn disaster which is Uptown, (aka Paducah North). Now I am excited to hear that a new Coffee Shop/ Tapas bar is opening along with an artist studio on the South side of the 1500 Block of Washington. How exciting for Uptown we should all be thrilled...Except that this new project which require nearly 400,000.00 to make workable has already cost the Taxpayers of our city almost 200 G's!
The Mayor in these debates has repeatedly said he is not giving away the city properties..and yet he's giving this one away fro $1.00! Respectfully Mr. Mayor..either decide to liquidate our real estate and get the Hell out of the City real estate business, or go back to being a Realtor.
It is time to seriously consider tearing down every building on the North side of Uptown and widening Hwy 20. Doing so will dramatically increase the property value of every building on the south side of the district. But the most important benefit will be to finally make the entrance corridor into our city much more visitor friendly. Racine's population is down nearly 17,000 from it's 1970 high, it makes sense to eliminate some excess retail districts which will require years of demand to be viable districts. Right now, Uptown, West Racine, Downtown, and now the State Street corridors will all be competing for the same retail "customers" and will merely strangle each of them from success. Remove the North side of Uptown will help all of the others to have a chance at success, and at the same time dramatically improve the Uptown district and traffic flow.
H/T to the Siren for this..although we post it for different reasons. Robin Vos and Van Wangaard took the leadership to get rid of this thing before the KRM and the "Not Very High speed train to Almost, but not exactly Madison", is almost dead. Mayor Dickert can yank his unelected representative from the RTA, and save the city and/or State a few bucks. But most importantly the entire state will save millions. Here's my eulogy for RTA:
Good bye RTA. You wasted your life and those of us who never voted you in to existence, but we found a way to vote you out. Kudo's to Vos and WanGaard, the tens of millions dollars we will save because of just this one death.
RTA your death will be remembered for many years to come! The train no one would ride will thank your for preventing a life of emptyness, loneliness, solitude, and rusty rails to nowhere. I think I'll wear black today to mourn your passing. RIP
I have had numerous discussions on this topic for the past several months with my TEA Party and Facebook friends and many others. Nearly every time I get this groan...Not Mitt! One word "Romney-care..game over". I disagree!
I have felt Mitt is the best choice since well back in 2006 when names were just getting tossed around, and I still think he will win in 2012 at least the nomination.
I'm gonna get a little wonky here..but stay with me. CPAC just finished it's Straw poll (record attendance and record number of voters), and for the second year in a row Ron Paul came out on top this year with 30% of the support. (Romney placed second this year and last and first the 3 years prior to that). First off CPAC is very core conservatives/ TEA Party and in the past 2 years infiltrated by lot's of the Ron Paul-ittes. 3700 voters in this years Straw Poll. Ron Paul gets 30%, Romney 23%, Gary Johnson (another Libertarian) ties with Christie, (who is NOT running) get 6% each. Newt garners only 5%, and Sarah Palin comes in at 3%. Huckabee doesn't even place with 1% T. Paw and Daniels 4% each, Herman Cain, (the TEA Party darling) only 2%.
Now we must accept the Ron Paul infiltrators are trying to stack the deck here, but it's artificial. Paul only rec'd about 3-5% of the actual vote in primary's in 2008. So of the attendees Paul got about 1110 votes. Gary Johnson the other Paul-itte got 6% (222 votes).
This leaves about 2400 voters who represent a more traditional Republican/ Conservative voter:
Mitt with 23% of the total (962 votes), actually represents 40% of the adjusted vote, Christie at 6% (222 votes), equals just under 10% of the vote. Newt @ 5% (185) equals 8%, Palin at 3% (111 votes) equals 5% of the adjusted voters. Herman Cain with 74 votes is about 3%.
Now lets look at who is actually likely to run. Romney, Cain, and T. Paw * are in for sure. Ron Paul MAYBE, (but I doubt it)..and I suspect he'll do better than 2008 but 10% at best. Christie is NOT running; Palin is smart enough to not run this time; and Newt will probably waffle until he sells a few more books and then drop out or not ever get in like the past 2 times.
The race becomes Mitt, Cain, T. Paw * and maybe Hayley Barbour who both got 3% of the votes. T. Paw is boring even compared to Mitt, and Barbour has a few things that are lingering out there, and he was a big time Lobbyist for a few years as well. What about Huckabee?? Great question! The Huckster has a pretty good ride going on Fox right now, he didn't even show up at CPAC this year..and didn't receive enough votes to garner even 1%. I think most people see his "aw shucks" thing and realize the folks in IOWA got bamboozled in 2008, where Mitt took second place..and could never recover, despite doing well in each race he was in. It's almost too late for anyone else to jump in and compete.. JEB Bush wont do it. Rick Perry from Texas maybe *. Any US Senator that could go at it, right now I can't think of one; (John Thune indicated he is NOT going to run). The rest of the Repub Govs are still too new to jump into a race this soon. But there are some GREAT Govs out there Christie, Walker, Scott, Kasich just to name a few. I suppose I should add Mitch Daniels from Indiana as a possible, he did make some dramatic changes to IND. But I think he'll come across a little too wimpy/ wonky for the voters to grasp. But he could be the possible upset. (He scored 4% in the CPAC poll).
My handicap: Romney wins with 54%; Cain places with 20%; T. Paw* (Perry jumped in the same day T.Paw dropped out), and/or Daniels drops out early with 3-4% ; Barbour 12%; and Ron Paul with 10% if he even gets in the race this time.
I welcome your comments and hopefully a dialogue. I fully expect the Mormon topic to come up as well. (* Comments were added regarding Perry/ T. Paw after the Iowa Straw Poll).
MAY UPDATE: Huckabee is out; Still looks like Palin is not running; Gingrich is in..but no one seems to take him seriously. Trump was a one week wonder. Daniels is seriously considering it...but there is a bunch of stuff with him that will be challenge. I'll talk about more later:
JUNE UPDATE: Palin still being discussed, But I don't expect her to get in; Huntsman to jump in this week. and Rick Perry is getting more serious talk, (I still think 50/50% at best). Fox Debate was "won" by Herman Cain..and his poll numbers ticked up. The New Hampshire debate added Romney and Michelle Bachmann and they both won the debate with Romney on top. The polls this week came out and have Romney breaking 30% and as high as 33%. The NH Poll came out with GOP/ IND. Voters who are "Likely" and over 50% had watched the NH Debate. Romney was 42% and led by over 32% over the nearest competitors: Ron Paul and Bachmann were tied with 10%. National polling gives Ron Paul has been stuck around 7-8% for years. Cain and Bachmann are both polling around 10-12%. Palin and Giulianni have been grabbing 14-16% but neither are likely to run. T. Paw can't get over 5%; Gingrich is still 8-9% despite his campaign staff all resigning last week. Finally Johnson and Huntsman are both stuck around 1-2%.
"This Is Why There Are No Jobs in America
I’d like to make you a business offer.
Seriously. This is a real offer. In fact, you really can’t turn me down, as you’ll come to understand in a moment…
Here’s the deal. You’re going to start a business or expand the one you’ve got now. It doesn’t really matter what you do or what you’re going to do. I’ll partner with you no matter what business you’re in – as long as it’s legal.
But I can’t give you any capital – you have to come up with that on your own. I won’t give you any labor – that’s definitely up to you. What I will do, however, is demand you follow all sorts of rules about what products and services you can offer, how much (and how often) you pay your employees, and where and when you’re allowed to operate your business. That’s my role in the affair: to tell you what to do.
Now in return for my rules, I’m going to take roughly half of whatever you make in the business each year. Half seems fair, doesn’t it? I think so. Of course, that’s half of your profits.
You’re also going to have to pay me about 12% of whatever you decide to pay your employees because you’ve got to cover my expenses for promulgating all of the rules about who you can employ, when, where, and how. Come on, you’re my partner. It’s only “fair.”
Now… after you’ve put your hard-earned savings at risk to start this business, and after you’ve worked hard at it for a few decades (paying me my 50% or a bit more along the way each year), you might decide you’d like to cash out – to finally live the good life.
Whether or not this is “fair” – some people never can afford to retire – is a different argument. As your partner, I’m happy for you to sell whenever you’d like… because our agreement says, if you sell, you have to pay me an additional 20% of whatever the capitalized value of the business is at that time.
I know… I know… you put up all the original capital. You took all the risks. You put in all of the labor. That’s all true. But I’ve done my part, too. I’ve collected 50% of the profits each year. And I’ve always come up with more rules for you to follow each year. Therefore, I deserve another, final 20% slice of the business.
Oh… and one more thing…
Even after you’ve sold the business and paid all of my fees… I’d recommend buying lots of life insurance. You see, even after you’ve been retired for years, when you die, you’ll have to pay me 50% of whatever your estate is worth.
After all, I’ve got lots of partners and not all of them are as successful as you and your family. We don’t think it’s “fair” for your kids to have such a big advantage. But if you buy enough life insurance, you can finance this expense for your children.
All in all, if you’re a very successful entrepreneur… if you’re one of the rare, lucky, and hard-working people who can create a new company, employ lots of people, and satisfy the public… you’ll end up paying me more than 75% of your income over your life. Thanks so much.
I’m sure you’ll think my offer is reasonable and happily partner with me… but it doesn’t really matter how you feel about it because if you ever try to stiff me – or cheat me on any of my fees or rules – I’ll break down your door in the middle of the night, threaten you and your family with heavy, automatic weapons, and throw you in jail.
That’s how civil society is supposed to work, right? This is Amerika, isn’t it?
That’s the offer Amerika gives its entrepreneurs. And the idiots in Washington wonder why there are no new jobs…
Best case scenario on this is 4% from the High to the Low.
However in the same time period Labor force in
July 09 40,537 E 33,730 UE 6807 UE Rate 16.8
Dec 10 37,867 E 33,028 UE 4839 UE Rate 12.8
The first point is obvious from May 2009 at 15.5 to the latest #'s Dec 2010 The decrease in UE was 2.7%. If we give credit for the Highest to the lowest July 09 to Dec 10 the best the Mayor can claim is 4%. so why advertise with 5%?? It was the same with "Balanced budget" and the Zero increase! Why use numbers that are fake? It makes no sense to me.
Look just a little deeper here though the ACTUAL numbers of jobs in Racine DROPPED by 702 jobs. That's Less jobs not more!! It is true that the UE number dropped as well by nearly 2000 but it's not because these people got jobs..they simply ran out of benefits. Otherwise the Employed # would have INCREASED by that nearly 2000 folks.
Look at the other number in this comparison How many people are in our workforce We dropped nearly 2700 people in our workforce. Did they move away? Retire? Die? Go to prison? I think if 2700 people died or went to prison we would've read that story in the papers. Thus I presume it's a combination of a few retirees, and a whole host people simply leaving town, or dropping out of the labor force.
To celebrate these Numbers in your Advertising without telling the real story is disingenuous at the very least.
Racine can not afford to have 2700 people leave our city/ or our work force every 18 months.
We must look at lower taxes, smarter spending, and a business friendly environment if we are to save our City. Mr. Mayor use the TRUTH!
Last night the Public Safety and Licensing Committee met to discuss the request by a local DT market, to acquire a waiver of the "Class A" liquor license so the market can offer full liquor product selection, rather than the current "Beer" only license.
The market argues that offering full Class A will permit them to make enough profit during the sales day to be able close at 9 pm rather than the current midnight closing. Whatever their reason the fact that Racine abides by this silly artificial "Cap", on licenses makes no sense whatsoever. Now it should be noted the committee voted "Yes" to send the request to the full council this coming Tuesday evening, (Primary election day); however Alderman Marcus voted NO!!! Ald. Marcus' reason, he explained was that he didn't believe the market had enough of a reason to break the "cap". I respectfully disagree Alderman, if the market asks we should grant the request unless they have a history of problems. If the city of Racine is going to recover and grow..we must allow businesses to make the decisions to grow their businesses, Most of the current council and Mayor have blocked several businesses from opening in the city for "perceived problems", rather than actual problems.
Mr Marcus, as you pursue your Mayoral bid it must be your first goal to smooth the path, rather than block the path, of new and existing businesses. If this market violates or abuses the rules, then we slap them down. Until then give them the benefit of the doubt and let them make their business work better.