Saturday, May 11, 2013

2014 US Senate Early Look

I 've been watching the early efforts of which Senate seats are up for grabs in 2014, and while it's still early, and there are always surprises, I think it's beginning to take shape.

The Crystal Ball 2014 Senate Map  shows 2 States likely to switch from Dem to GOP
South Dakota    Tim Johnson retiring, very solid Red state, Gov Mike Rounds, easy favorite.
West Virginia     Jay Rockefeller retiring, First GOP Senate seat possibility in decades (1958)!

They also show toss-ups in 4 states :

Alaska         Mark Begich, (Barely won in 2008, a very red leaning state)
Lousianna    Mary Landrieu (Also very close in a red leaning state)
Montana      Max Baucus, retiring.
North Carolina
Nancy Hagen, (Just barely beat Elizabeth Dole, in a surprise Obama win for NC)

At first blush ALL of those 6 seats should flip to "Red" in an off year, non-presidential Obama led election cycle.  I believe all 6 have a GOP Governor, and a GOP Gov race in the same election cycle.  As far as I know none of those Gov's are facing serious challenges yet.

So lets look at the next tier of races in the lightest blue shade:

New Hampshire
   Jeanine Shaheen, (a close win in 2008, vs John Sununu Jr.)
Minnesota    Al Franken,  (The ultimate nail-biter, against Norm Coleman recount was corrupted).
Iowa            Tom Harkin, Retiring at last!!   Lots of candidates considering a run.
Arkansas      Mark Pryor, (Should be very vulnerable, just awaiting a solid Republican with $$ to run).
Michigan      Carl Levin, Retired at last!   Can Michigan find a suitable GOP that can win this state?

There are no GOP light "Red" states in play.

If John Kerry's Massachusetts seat doesn't flip to Gabriel Gomez in the special election next month, (June 25th).  The GOP will still need to pick up 6 seats to take control of the US Senate.  It certainly is within reach.  I think if the wave similar to the 2010 wave is duplicated they could grab another 2 or 3.

The response to ObamaCare, Economics issues, and perhaps his mess in Benghazi could hurt the Dems across the country.     The House seats seem to be pretty well defined I suspect a GOP pick-up of 5 seats..to as many 12 at the most. The Senate is primed for a big swing though.

I would think of the 5 light blue races the most flipable are in this order:

Arkansas
Iowa
Minnesota
Michigan
New Hampshire.

Just imagine the message that would be sent to the Obama camp if 6-11 seats flipped against him.  That'd be a Shellacking for the ages!   It would also demonstrate the TEA Party isn't gone..and would have completed it's takeover of the GOP core.

There have been over 10 Senate election cycles with more than 8 seat changes in the last 99 years. This includes the 1958 elections where the Dems took 16 seats from the GOP during Eisenhower's final mid-term.   Several were 10 seat switches.  One was 12 and another 11.

Sunday, May 5, 2013

2013 Politics

This year there is very little to keep your eyes on and even less reason to vote. What a relief for those of us in SE WI who have had races, recalls, recounts etc. for 2 1/2 years!.

But a few things to watch:
 Gov Races in New Jersey and Virginia and 2 Special Senate elections in Mass and Hawaii

NJ's Gov Chris Christie has a challenger but he seems to be going no where..Likely Christie will have an easy re-election here.  Good for him a purple tilting state.

Virginia has become more "purple" over the years and the current GOP Gov has been great Bob McDonnell, we'll prob see him n the 2016 GOP Prez line-up.   But Virginia is term limited at one 4 year term.  So Ken Cuccinelli the State's Atty General is the early favorite for this November's election.  His challenger is Terry McAulliffe who has run before and was closely connected to Bill Clinton.  He was also the spokesperson for the Dem Party for a few years.  His bullying style, his dishonest smile and tendency to lie about almost anything is catching up to him I believe.  The early polls have Ken C. up 51-41 with "likely" voters.  

Massachusetts Senate Special election:
When Teddy Kennedy died in 2010 and the TEA Party was just getting it's legs.  This Scott Brown came out of no where in a VERY Blue State.  I didn't have much hope when folks were thrilled he was only 19 points behind Marth Coakley..  then a week later he closed to 9 points.. and I started to give it a little credit, but was still doubtful...then he won the seat in the second Bluest state in the USA.

That said, how does that compare to the June 25th election.   3 polls are out this week and the leading Dem Cong. Ed Markey, vs GOP candidate Gabriel Gomez.  wth about 45 days to go Markey has only a 4-5 point lead..and is at about 44%.  Markey is known in Massachusetts for decades!  He should be well over 50% already.  Thus it's a real race in Mass this Summer.   I'll be watching..if Gomez doesn't say anything stupid he can win this race.    If that happens the GOP is in GREAT shape to take back the US Senate in 2014.  They'll need 4 for a tie and 5 for control.  If they do either it sends a message to Barack Obama that his agenda is dead and not welcome to America with the TEA Party in leadership in the GOP across the country.

We'll keep an eye out for more changes or updates.

Wednesday, February 13, 2013

WI State Supreme Ct Balance

This April we face the choice of Justice Pat Roggensack vs. Ed Fallone the liberals choice,  (Vince Megna appears to be getting zero traction.   The question is will there be enough energy behind this race. to bring out the Right and Left forces, and thus be a repeat of Prosser vs. Kloppenberg.

The Conservative vs. Liberal balance is in play this year.  Regardless of how it turns out, this race could be replayed for the next several years.  There is no scheduled Supreme Court race for 2014, (unless there is a vacancy due to retirement or death, which Scott Walker would appoint, and then a race would be called for April 2014), but 2015 will be the seat of Liberal Justice Ann Walsh Bradley, the "Robin" to Shirley Abrahamson's "Batman" persona; 2016 will be a face off of Justice Pat Crooks who originally was perceived as a Conservative, and has been the most middle of the road of all 7 justices.  Most Court watchers believe he will retire, (he'll be 78  in 2016).   Shirley Abrahmason will be 80 this year and could decide to retire at anytime, Shirley would hate to allow Scott Walker to appoint her replacement after the lecture she gave him at his swearing in Jan 2011.

The next Conservative up for a challenge won't be until 2017 when Annette Zielgler is up followed by Michael Gableman in 2018 and then Shirley Abrahamson in 2019 at the age of 86.

Current ages:
Shirley Abrahamson 79    L
Patrick Crooks        75    L /M
Pat Roggensack       72    C
David Prosser          70    C
Ann Walsh Bradley  62    L
Annette Ziegler        48    C
Michael Gableman   46    C

If Roggensack were to lose it would be an unpleasant year or 2..but long term things look good for the Conservative wing of the court..and this is what makes Shirley Abrahmason so miserable.  I wouldn't be surprised if she retires if Roggensack wins re-election, knowing it'll be years before she can hope to have any  power on the court.

Sunday, January 20, 2013

Put our City Employees on ObamaCare and save 14 Million dollars a year!

In the City of Racine, and the county the people voted overwhelmingly for President Obama, Russ Feingold, and Tammy Baldwin.  Thus it's a safe bet that the majority of those folks support the idea of Obama-Care.  Among the Govt. Employees of Racine city, county, Gateway, and RUSD It's a safe bet the same is true among the staff of each of those entities.

Under Obama-Care Employers with over 50 employees have 2 options:
First they can offer a plan with mandates imposed by the Federal Govt.
or
Secondly They can NOT insure their employees, and pay a 2000 per employee "Fine", that will be used to set up "exchanges".

Since each of these entities above has more than 50 employees, and are facing difficulties in funding I suggest we take advantage of option #2.

For instance the City of Racine has about 800 employees.  At a cost of 2000.00 per employee the cost to the city would be about 1.2 Million dollar for the "Fine".    We are currently spending in excess of 16 Million dollars a year in health insurance costs. This would treat every worker fairly and equally regardless of gender, age, race or sexual preference.  More importantly though it would save the City of Racine Taxpayers  over 14.8 Million dollars a YEAR!!   That is enough cash to eliminate every tax increase we have had in over a decade!  Those Saving will last for years to come!

If the same ObamaCare policy that the Democrats voted for almost unanimously in America were applied to the City, State, Federal employees we would balance our budget in ONE year I believe.  The surpluses available at every level of Govt. would mean big tax cuts across many levels of Govt for years to come.   It might also make a Lifetime of Govt employment not as appealing.

This is something for us to seriously consider.  Let it begin in Racine, before we vote raise our own taxes.  If the message gets around the country fast enough, we could see the end of Obama-Care before it ruins the fabric of American business and liberty forever!

Friday, January 11, 2013

School Board Candidates Who Signed the Recall

In the RUSD upcoming election 10 candidates are running for the 3 seats, including one open seat:

Of the 10 candidates 5 did and 5 didn't sign the Walker and Wangaard recalls.

Who signed?
Cecilia Anguiano    2818 Loraine Ave                            Signed BOTH
Laura Betker          2320 Gilson Ave                              Signed BOTH
Tifene Brown          5420 Athens Ave                             Signed BOTH
Randall Bryce         1718 Wind Dale Dr. Caledonia        Signed BOTH
Michael Frontier     1127 Lake Ave, Racine                   Signed BOTH
(Susan Kutz is retiring from the board and WAS a signer of the recalls).


Who didn't:
Julie McKenna (i)    724 Crab Tree Ln                            Signed neither but her husband Colin signed both.

Who else didn't:
Kristie Formolo        4829 Old Green Bay Rd                    Signed neither
Christopher Eperjesy 830 Waters Edge, Caledonia            Signed neither*
(* Eperjesy is the inc. appointed to fill the role of an early retiring member who left a few months ago.)
Roger Pfost              3114 Caledonia St, Caledonia            Signed neither      
Robert (Bob) Wittke  11 Sandalwood, Wind Point             Signed neither

Hope this information will help you all decide who you might wish to support for School Board.  Which side supports the Taxpayers, parents and the children..vs. which side supports the Union and it's special interest.

Candidate list for Racine County can be located HERE






            

Aldermanic Candidates Who Signed Recalls

The City Aldermanic candidate list is complete I thought it would be worth checking to see who did and who didn't sign recall papers against Wangaard and Walker last year.  So we can divine a little understanding of who is in favor of controlling the size and scope of City Govt.:

1st District
Keith FAIR (i)                          Didn't sign recall paper for Walker or Wangaard
Jeff COE                                 Signed the Walker Recall only
Shana HENDERSON             Signed BOTH recall forms
Marlo HARMON                    Doesn't appear to have signed either
Captain Ed JIRSA                   Didn't sign either form.

3rd District
Mike D SHIELDS (i)               Signed BOTH recall forms
J. Nicole SERVANTEZ           Inconclusive but appears to not have signed*
      (* a Jennifer Servantez signed, not sure if it's the same person).

5th District
Melissa BECKER-Kaprelian (i)Signed BOTH recall forms
Jeff WARG                              Signed the Walker recall only

12th District (open seat)
Colin McKENNA                    Signed BOTH recall forms (dropped form the race)
Henry PEREZ                           Signed neither

15th District
Robert MOZUL (i)                   Signed neither
Dr. Eddie DIEHL                     Signed neither
Dennis SHAW                         Signed neither    (dropped from the race)
Gerald BESTOR                      Signed BOTH and Signed the Walker recall twice!

JTimes story



Thursday, November 8, 2012

The TEA Party is still winning, It's not time to change our message

OK first off Obama won, he won small not big.. He hasn't changed the momentum of the TEA Party..maybe a little slow down; but we aren't going away.

First of all Obama was down 10 Million voters, and the GOP was only down 2.5 Million.  Mitt lost by 2.5 Million, who are these people?  Researching now to determine who they were.  If we had gotten those folks to the polls we'd win and the demographic numbers would be pretty much the same as 2008..but our side would've won.  In the 10 swing states they all went less for Obama than 2008..that means we are winning, even if we didn't capture the Flag.

Several states like Wisconsin had big increases in State control by the GOP candidates.  Only a few House seats changed hands.   While we lost a few Senate seats..we are still way ahead of where we were on th eFirst day of November 2010..a week later we took the House and Senate and Governorship's and State legislatures..we essentially held our ground in what Prez Obama called a "Shellacking" back in Nov 2010.

So while we fell short of the Presidential race..It was one of the closest losses ever against a sitting President.  had the vote been a week earlier or Hurricane Sandy hadn't landed when it did Romney Ryan would've won as predicted by Karl Rove, Michael Barone and others.

The post-mortum on all the round tables is that the TEA Party is hurting the GOP. BS I say, The fact is R&R ran an economics based election and they just barely missed winning.  It's not time to change our position on amnesty for illegals..it's not time to embrace abortion or gay marriage or birth control pills for law students.

We are being asked to make an outreach to Hispanics...I think our party already is the outreach for them and over the years as they become wealthier and more successful they will find themselves at home in the GOP based on family, personal responsibility, and rewarding success.  We currently get about 70% of the Latino voters.  We do much worse than that in California. but California is a lost cause for us these days.  the rest of the countries Latins are more open to our message.  As for the "black" vote..  Obama did very well with them in both election cycles 2008 & 12.. around 94%  but historically the GOP gets about 12-15%., When the candidate isn't Black we should see this number back to normal.  As more middle class blacks earn more and become business owners we'll grab back about 1 % every 2 years for another generation I think.

So all of this angst about the GOP and the TEA Party needing to Kow-Tow to these micro groups is just silly.  Stay focused primarily on Taxes, Spending and the "Economy Stupid" and we'll continue to grow our majorities...For now hold Obama in check and don't give him anything.  He is a lame-duck.and is unable to lead at anything.  2014 is just around the corner.